UK display advertising will grow by just 0.5% this year, before shooting up to 6.3% growth during 2004, according to the latest set of quarterly forecasts from the Advertising Association (AA).
Display growth so far this year has been weak, at just 0.7% and 0.4% for the first two quarters respectively. Moving into Q3, the AA is expecting a year on year decline of 1.2% and with only a slight pick-up to 1.9% in Q4, the full year will not be strong.
Next year is forecast to be much healthier though, with the rate of growth increasing each quarter and hitting 7.8% by Q4 – the highest rate since Q2 2000.
| UK Display Advertising Forecasts | ||
| All Display Revenue (£m) | YoY Growth (%) | |
| FY 2002 | 8,505 | 0.3 |
| Q1 2003 | 2,025 | 0.7 |
| Q2 2003 | 2,140 | 0.4 |
| Q3 03 | 2,002 | -1.2 |
| Q4 03 | 2,381 | 1.9 |
| FY 2003 | 8,548 | 0.5 |
| Q1 04 | 2,125 | 4.9 |
| Q2 04 | 2,261 | 5.7 |
| Q3 04 | 2,137 | 6.7 |
| Q4 04 | 2,567 | 7.8 |
| FY 2004 | 9,090 | 6.3 |
| Source: Advertising Association, September 2003 | ||
For comparison, Merrill Lynch in September gave a UK display growth forecast of 1.0% for 2003, rising to 3.5% and 4.5% for 2004 and 2005 respectively.
