GroupM expects UK advertising spending to fall 11.2% in 2009, with global spending predicted to drop 4.4% to $425 billion.
Western Europe faces a 6.7% fall this year (8.5% real) where Germany is so far proving the most resilient regional advertising market, said GroupM. In the US, spending is expected to fall by 4.3% in 2009 and 6.8% in 2010.
| Media USD m, current prices |
|
2007 |
2008f |
2009f |
| North America |
170,983 |
172,033 |
164,770 |
| yoy% |
2.7 |
0.6 |
-4.2 |
| Latin America |
16,858 |
18,766 |
20,296 |
| yoy% |
11.3 |
11.3 |
8.2 |
| Western Europe |
108,171 |
107,204 |
99,984 |
| yoy% |
6.3 |
-0.9 |
-6.7 |
| Emerging Europe |
15,532 |
17,040 |
14,355 |
| yoy% |
19.1 |
9.7 |
-15.8 |
| Asia-Pacific (all) |
109,452 |
116,603 |
112,784 |
| yoy% |
7.5 |
6.5 |
-3.3 |
| North Asia |
38,532 |
45,475 |
46,426 |
| yoy% |
14.5 |
18.0 |
2.1 |
| ASEAN |
8,076 |
8,860 |
9,071 |
| yoy% |
9.2 |
9.7 |
2.4 |
| Middle East & Africa |
10,726 |
12,968 |
12,893 |
| yoy% |
23.1 |
20.9 |
-0.6 |
| World |
431,721 |
444,612 |
425,082 |
| yoy% |
6.1 |
3.0 |
-4.4 |
| Source: GroupM, March 2009 |
In December 2008, GroupM’s twice-yearly This Year, Next Year report predicted that measured media spending in 2009 would drop 0.2% to $458 billion globally and decline 3% in the US to $157 billion (see Global ad spend to fall 0.2% in 2009).
| 2009 Media Investment and % Change v 2008 (larger countries) |
|
Nominal |
Real |
USDm 2009 |
| USA |
-4.3 |
-6.0 |
155,129 |
| Japan |
-10.5 |
-11.2 |
43,174 |
| China |
3.2 |
-1.1 |
36,280 |
| Germany |
-0.9 |
-2.2 |
22,556 |
| UK |
-11.2 |
-13.7 |
15,541 |
| France |
-4.7 |
-6.2 |
13,326 |
| Italy |
-6.1 |
-7.8 |
12,229 |
| Brazil |
10.5 |
5.1 |
10,337 |
| Canada |
-2.9 |
-5.0 |
9,641 |
| Spain |
-13.8 |
-16.0 |
7,903 |
| Australia |
-1.7 |
-5.1 |
7,778 |
| Russia |
-22.8 |
-31.0 |
6,008 |
| Netherlands |
-6.0 |
-8.4 |
5,210 |
| India |
6.0 |
-0.7 |
4,707 |
| Source: GroupM, March 2009 |
The forecast for spending in China dropped to 3.2% growth this year (a real fall of 1.1%), from the 13% GroupM forecast in December. It attributes this decline is attributed to consumer retrenchment and a credit crunch in retail distribution, which government stimulus might alleviate.
| Media Investment yoy%, adjusted for CPI |
|
2007 |
2008f |
2009f |
| North America |
-0.1 |
-3.4 |
-6.0 |
| Latin America |
6.6 |
4.1 |
1.7 |
| Western Europe |
4.1 |
-4.1 |
-8.5 |
| Emerging Europe |
11.5 |
1.1 |
-18.1 |
| Asia-Pacific (all) |
4.9 |
1.7 |
-6.8 |
| North Asia |
9.8 |
11.3 |
-2.1 |
| ASEAN |
5.2 |
0.2 |
-5.3 |
| Middle East & Africa |
14.9 |
7.7 |
-8.0 |
| World |
3 |
-1.6 |
-7.0 |
| Source: GroupM, March 2009 |
Earlier this month, Carat forecast a 7.1% fall in UK adspend this year, with worldwide spend falling 5.8% (see Carat forecasts 7.1% drop in UK advertising spend this year).
