As anticipated, there was little encouragement for the beleagured advertising market in the new forecasts issued by Zenith Optimedia today.
The media agency sees no prospect of a revival this year, claiming that worldwide expenditure will fall by 0.5% and by 2.7% in real terms. This is in addition to the decline in 2001, when, according to the latest figures, the global ad market contracted by 3.8% or 6.4% in real terms.
| Zenith Optimedia Media Forecasts (major media; newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor) YoY Change (%) | |||||||||
| 2001 v 2000 | 2002 v 2001 | 2003 v 2002 | 2004 v 2003 | ||||||
| Current Prices | Constant Prices | Current Prices | Constant Prices | Current Prices | Constant Prices | Current Prices | Constant Prices | ||
| North America | -6.1 | -8.6 | -1.1 | -2.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | |
| of which: | USA | -6.1 | -8.7 | -1.2 | -2.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Canada | -4.1 | -6.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | |
| Europe | -3.2 | -5.7 | -0.7 | -2.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | |
| within which: | France | -4.9 | -6.4 | -1.0 | -2.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Germany | -5.5 | -7.7 | -3.7 | -5.0 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 6.0 | 4.7 | |
| Italy | -3.7 | -6.3 | -0.5 | -2.3 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | |
| Spain | -5.8 | -9.0 | -3.8 | -6.7 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | |
| UK | -4.4 | -6.1 | -1.3 | -3.1 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | |
| Asia/Pacific | -1.2 | -1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 | |
| Asia/Pacific ex Japan | -0.2 | -2.4 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 6.1 | |
| Latin America | -0.5 | – | -6.9 | – | 8.2 | – | 10.1 | – | |
| Africa/Middle East/Rest of World | 4.1 | – | 8.4 | – | 9.4 | – | 11.9 | – | |
| Total | -3.8 | -6.4 | -0.5 | -1.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | |
| Source: Zenith Optimedia, July 2002 | |||||||||
Market now stabilising According to Zenith Optimedia, both North America and Europe will see their advertising markets shrink by 2.7% in real terms during 2001. At face value, this would appear to indicate further recession although the report emphasises that ad expenditure in the US and Europe is merely stabilising at levels seen before the media and telecoms boom of the late nineties.
The study claims that UK ad revenues fell by over 4% in nominal terms last year and concludes that it will be 2004 before the key European ad markets have been restored to full growth.
| Advertising Expenditure: Major Media ($m current prices) | |||||||||
| 2000 | 2001 | % chg | 2002 | % chg | 2003 | % chg | 2004 | % chg | |
| North America | 149,302 | 140,256 | -6.1 | 138,682 | -1.1 | 141,329 | 1.9 | 146,856 | 3.9 |
| Europe | 74,404 | 71,991 | -3.2 | 71,481 | -0.7 | 73,452 | 2.8 | 77,009 | 4.8 |
| Asia/Pacific | 63,784 | 63,041 | -1.2 | 64,128 | 1.7 | 66,736 | 4.1 | 69,703 | 4.4 |
| Latin America | 19,655 | 19,553 | -0.5 | 18,204 | -6.9 | 19,690 | 8.2 | 21,681 | 10.1 |
| Africa/Middle East/Rest of World | 8,452 | 8,797 | 4.1 | 9,538 | 8.4 | 10,437 | 9.4 | 11,680 | 11.9 |
| Total | 315,597 | 303,638 | -3.8 | 302,033 | -0.5 | 311,645 | 3.2 | 326,930 | 4.9 |
| Source: Zenith Optimedia, July 2002 | |||||||||
