There is no denying it has been a difficult two years for the UK advertising industry but media executives should be encouraged by new forecasts which show that expenditure could rise by as much as 42% over the next decade.
The Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast from the Advertising Association acknowledges that following a prolonged period of growth, revenues across many sectors have been disappointing of late.
Expectations that advertising would bounce back quickly from the decline of 2001 have been wide of the mark but expenditure has recovered from all previous post-war recessions and the AA is optimistic that this will prove the case again.
The report offers a high end and low end projection for ad growth through to 2013. The optimistic projection, which assumes no major threats to advertising, has revenues rising by 42% in the next ten years. Even on the low option, which takes into account the damaging effect that the internet and a weak stock market could have on the advertising economy, 20% real growth is predicted.
| UK Long Term Advertising Forecasts* | ||||||
| Year | High Option Revenues (£m) | Low Option Revenues (£m) | ||||
| Total | Display | Classified | Total | Display | Classified | |
| 2003 | 11,000 | 7,513 | 3,487 | 10,800 | 7,398 | 3,402 |
| 2013 | 15,650 | 10,845 | 4,805 | 12,950 | 9,195 | 3,756 |
| % Change | 42.3 | 44.3 | 37.8 | 19.9 | 24.3 | 10.4 |
| * at constant 1995 prices | ||||||
| Source: Advertising Association, October 2003 | ||||||
