The advertising market is expected to move once again into positive growth during the course of this year, according to a consensus of forecasts compiled by MediaTel Insight.
It is generally recognised that the first half to three quarters of the year will see a continuation of the decline that hit 2001 so hard, but the fourth quarter is expected to display an upturn in the market. Billetts has already predicted a return to growth around September (see Forecasts).
However, some forecasters are still expecting 2002 growth to end up negative. Media Planning Group is forecasting a -1.0% performance for the year, whilst analysts at ABN Amro are even more pessimistic with a prediction of -1.7%. Meanwhile, Zenith Media, Universal McCann and Optimedia are predicting positive growth for the year.
| UK Ad Growth Forecast Comparisons | ||
| 2001 | 2002 | |
| ABN Amro | -5.4 | -1.7 |
| Zenith Media | -4.0 | 0.7 |
| Universal McCann | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Media Planning Group | -7.6 | -1.0 |
| Optimedia | -3.2 | 2.3 |
| Average | -3.9 | 0.6 |
| Source: As above, December 2001, Optimedia – November 2001 | ||
Meanwhile, the UK economy appears to have fared better in the global slowdown than most others, according to a recent appraisal from the International Monetary Fund (see Forecasts). In its annual report on the UK, the IMF said that the economy had benefited from ‘prudent and predictable fiscal policy’ – unemployment is now at its lowest level for 25 years and Gordon Brown’s recent pre-budget report (PBR) is said to have ‘set an international standard of best practice’.
