Global advertising spending in measured media is expected to fall 0.2% to $458 billion in 2009 compared to the previous year when spending was up 2.6%, according to a new study from GroupM.
The projected decline is the first retreat in global advertising since the 3% fall recorded in 2001 after 2000’s dotcom-driven ad growth of 15%.
The report also predicted that ad spending in the US will fall 3% to $157 billion in 2009 following a 0.3% increase to $162 billion in 2008.
Adam Smith, GroupM futures director, said: “Advertisers are scrutinizing every penny. The automotive and financial services categories have obviously seen weakness across 2008, and retail will be under pressure as we move beyond its busiest fourth-quarter into 2009.
“Among our own client base we are not seeing wholesale cancellations, but we are seeing migration from expensive and less-tried-and-true media to value and certainty.”
Smith identified internet ad spending as the only significant growth area, but noted that despite a projected 5% increase in 2009, spending is still down compared to an expected 16% growth this year.
He added that the world’s other leading internet economy, the UK, mirrored US projections with rates of 4% in 2009 compared to 22 percent in 2008. Worldwide, internet ad growth is predicted to slow from 22% in 2008 to 10 percent in 2009, representing $5 billion growth to reach $59 billion or 13% of measured media investment.
“We do not expect an ad collapse in 2009, but nor do we expect the sudden improvement of the last two cycles,” said Smith. “Consumer retrenchment is simply too deep. However, the good news is that some support for recovery is already in place.”
| Advertising Expenditure By Major Media (US $million, current prices) |
| |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
| North America |
167,327 |
171,870 |
172,981 |
167,443 |
| USA |
158,067 |
161,693 |
162,099 |
156,882 |
| Western Europe |
109,650 |
116,257 |
115,434 |
113,451 |
| Asia/Pacific |
102,994 |
110,766 |
115,907 |
120,810 |
| Emerging Europe |
16,318 |
19,606 |
22,277 |
21,259 |
| Latin America |
16,314 |
18,166 |
19,972 |
21,597 |
| Africa/ Middle East |
8,928 |
11,124 |
12,798 |
13,912 |
| World |
421,531 |
447,789 |
459,369 |
458,471 |
| Source: GroupM, December 2008 |
A forecast released yesterday by ZenithOptimedia also predicted that global ad spend would decline 0.2% overall in 2009 (see ZenithOptimedia forecasts no growth in global adspend in 2009).
Developing markets will largely counterbalance the decline in North America and Western Europe’s ad spend next year, which will fall by 5.7% and 1% respectively, said Zenith.
Last week, GroupM forecast that UK ad spend will decline by nearly 6% year on year in 2009, the worst of any developed country (see UK ad spend to fall nearly 6% in 2009).
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