The year ahead: Deloitte’s TMT predictions 2011
Push will beat pull in the battle for television viewers; DVRs will proliferate; the 30-second spot will not die; TV’s ‘super media’ status will strengthen; and gaming will go online, according to Deloitte’s tenth anniversary predictions for 2011:
- This year will see the majority of television viewing delivered on a traditional “pushed” basis, with EPG’s ruling over searched-for content, despite the sale of millions of television sets that offer a form of built-in search capability such as the new IPTV sets.
- Digital video recorder (DVR) penetration will exceed 50% of TV households by the end of 2011, although TV advertising will be unaffected. This is mainly due to the fact that the majority of DVR owners will continue to watch the vast amount of their television live.
- In 2011, social networking sites are likely to surpass the one billion unique members milestone – delivering over two trillion adverts. However, ad revenues will remain relatively modest compared to other media, at least in the short term
- Television is due to solidify its status as the current super media – viewers will watch 140 billion more hours of television around the world; 40 million new viewers will start watching; and TV advertising will increase by $10 billion this year.
- Revenues for digitally distributed music will exceed physical music sales in at least one major market (probably the US) this year.
- The global computer and video games industry will continue growing but from a more diverse set of revenue streams – software revenues will generate $52 billion in 2011, while hardware will bring in $13 billion.
- In 2011, more than 25% of all tablet computers will be bought by enterprises (10 million devices). Consumer demand will remain strong but enterprise demand will grow even faster.
- Combined sales of smartphones, tablets and non-PC netbooks will reach over 400 million this year.
- Despite further criticism about online privacy issues, only minor legislative and regulatory changes will come in to play by the end of year – which are unlikely to change to online business model.
- Shoppers may enjoy in-store Wi-Fi access in North America this year, a trend that is likely to spread around the world.