GroupM expects UK advertising spending to fall 11.2% in 2009, with global spending predicted to drop 4.4% to $425 billion.
Western Europe faces a 6.7% fall this year (8.5% real) where Germany is so far proving the most resilient regional advertising market, said GroupM. In the US, spending is expected to fall by 4.3% in 2009 and 6.8% in 2010.
| Media USD m, current prices | |||
| 2007 | 2008f | 2009f | |
| North America | 170,983 | 172,033 | 164,770 |
| yoy% | 2.7 | 0.6 | -4.2 |
| Latin America | 16,858 | 18,766 | 20,296 |
| yoy% | 11.3 | 11.3 | 8.2 |
| Western Europe | 108,171 | 107,204 | 99,984 |
| yoy% | 6.3 | -0.9 | -6.7 |
| Emerging Europe | 15,532 | 17,040 | 14,355 |
| yoy% | 19.1 | 9.7 | -15.8 |
| Asia-Pacific (all) | 109,452 | 116,603 | 112,784 |
| yoy% | 7.5 | 6.5 | -3.3 |
| North Asia | 38,532 | 45,475 | 46,426 |
| yoy% | 14.5 | 18.0 | 2.1 |
| ASEAN | 8,076 | 8,860 | 9,071 |
| yoy% | 9.2 | 9.7 | 2.4 |
| Middle East & Africa | 10,726 | 12,968 | 12,893 |
| yoy% | 23.1 | 20.9 | -0.6 |
| World | 431,721 | 444,612 | 425,082 |
| yoy% | 6.1 | 3.0 | -4.4 |
| Source: GroupM, March 2009 | |||
In December 2008, GroupM’s twice-yearly This Year, Next Year report predicted that measured media spending in 2009 would drop 0.2% to $458 billion globally and decline 3% in the US to $157 billion.
The forecast for spending in China dropped to 3.2% growth this year (a real fall of 1.1%), from the 13% GroupM forecast in December. It attributes this decline is attributed to consumer retrenchment and a credit crunch in retail distribution, which government stimulus might alleviate.
Earlier this month, Carat forecast a 7.1% fall in UK adspend this year, with worldwide spend falling 5.8%.
