Advertising Forecasts

Advertising expenditure across Europe is forecast to increase from 4.1% in 1991 to 6.6% in 1992 and 7.6% in 1993 (1.9% and 3.4% allowing for inflation), according to the latest forecasts from Carat.

Over Europe as a whole, growth in advertising expenditure is forecast to be marginally ahead of growth in gross domestic product for 1992. In all of the six major markets, modest growth for GDP is expected for 1992 and 1993, including the UK, which experienced a decline of 2% in 1991.

DISPLAY AD SPEND OVER WESTERN EUROPE

(Excludes classified press advertising, direct mail, directories, sales promotions and production costs)

As the supply of commercial television airtime continues to grow through government deregulation, and with a relatively healthy economic background for the advertising industry, forecasts are positive for 1992.

Across all major markets, with the exception of the UK, television continued to grow in 1991. The most dramatic increases were registered in Germany, with revenue increases for the private commercial stations at the expense of the former monopoly public stations.

“With growth rates at current prices forecast at 11% and 11.4% in 1992 and 1993 respectively, television remains the engine of growth in European advertising, whilst the press has been a key loser,” the report posits. With the exception of Italy, the press medium enjoyed little growth throughout the first nine months of 1991. The most significant decreases occurred in the UK and France , although in both cases the trend appears to be reversing since the first quarter when the effects of the Gulf War were particularly severe.

TV ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE FORECASTS,$M

NEWSPAPER AD EXPENDITURE FORECASTS,$M

MAGAZINE AD EXPENDITURE FORECASTS, $M

RADIO AD EXPENDITURE FORECASTS, $M

CINEMA AD EXPENDITURE FORECASTS, $M

OUTDOOR AD EXPENDITURE FORECASTS, $M