UK advertising will grow by 2.3% in the second quarter of this year, dropping to 2.1% in Q3 and rising to 4.6% in Q4, according to the latest, revised forecasts from the Advertising Association.
The new forecasts are more positive than the previous set, published in March, which had predicted a 0.5% increase in Q2, followed by 1.7% and 4.8% growth in Q3 and Q4 respectively (see AA Forecasts Staggered Recovery For UK Media Spend). Television, radio and consumer magazines are all expected to show a return to decent growth throughout the remainder of the year.
Moving into 2003, the strongest growth is expected in the outdoor and transport sector, with radio and TV continuing to make gains above the average. The full data are shown in the tables and graphs here.
| UK Revised Advertising Association Forecast | ||||||||
| Total | Television | Radio | Outdoor & Transport | National Newspaper | Regional Newspaper | Consumer Magazines | Business & Prof. Magazines | |
| 2001 Q1 | 4.7 | -1.5 | 1.0 | 14.6 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 9.9 |
| Q2 | -8.2 | -15.9 | -14.5 | -5.8 | -11.8 | 2.2 | 5.3 | -5.9 |
| Q3 | -6.8 | -12.3 | -7.8 | -2.8 | -10.0 | 1.3 | 4.5 | -11.2 |
| Q4 | -9.9 | -12.3 | -13.5 | -12.9 | -17.5 | 0.1 | -1.2 | -11.1 |
| 2002 Q1 | -8.3 | -6.8 | -0.7 | -10.8 | -17.4 | 0.7 | -2.1 | -21.5 |
| Q2 | 2.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | -1.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.9 | -7.5 |
| Q3 | 2.1 | 5.8 | 5.8 | -1.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 6.8 | -7.6 |
| Q4 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| 2003 Q1 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| Q2 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 2.1 |
| Q3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.3 |
| Q4 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 5.2 |
| 2004 Q1 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.7 |
| Source: Advertising Association, June 2002 | ||||||||
