In preview of H1 financial results from Carlton Communications and Granada (see City News), analysts at Lehman Brothers have today published their ITV advertising revenue forecasts to 2003.
Overall revenue is expected to be down 8.0% this year, returning to a 4.0% growth in 2003. A very slight recovery is forecast for Q3 2002, after which a decline of 5.0% will return in Q4; Q1 and Q2 are to be down by 11.8% and 14.3% respectively.
For Carlton, Lehman Brothers is forecasting advertising revenue down by 13% to £333 million in H1 2002. Granada is expected to show ad revenue down 12% to £429 million.
| UK ITV Advertising Forecasts (£m) | |||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Full Year | |
| 1999 | 495.6 | 437.4 | 452.8 | 446.9 | 1,832.7 |
| YoY % Change | 5.2 | 12.3 | -4.7 | 11.5 | 5.5 |
| 2000 | 525.3 | 482.7 | 534.5 | 439.1 | 1,981.6 |
| YoY % Change | 6.0 | 10.4 | 18.0 | -1.7 | 8.1 |
| 2001 | 509.0 | 449.5 | 423.3 | 370.0 | 1,751.8 |
| YoY % Change | -3.1 | -6.9 | -20.8 | -15.7 | -11.6 |
| 2002 | 449.1 | 385.1 | 425.4 | 351.5 | 1,611.1 |
| YoY % Change | -11.8 | -14.3 | 0.5 | -5.0 | -8.0 |
| 2003 | 467.1 | 400.5 | 442.4 | 365.6 | 1,675.6 |
| YoY % Change | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2002 | |||||
Bullish alternatives Lehman Brothers has also produced a set of more bullish advertising revenue forecasts for ITV, as shown here.
| Bullish UK ITV Advertising Forecasts (£m) | ||||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Full Year | ||||||
| Bullish | Forecast | Bullish | Forecast | Bullish | Forecast | Bullish | Forecast | Bullish | Forecast | |
| 2002 | 449.1 | 449.1 | 385.1 | 385.1 | 427.5 | 425.4 | 384.8 | 351.5 | 1,646.5 | 1,611.1 |
| YoY % Change | -11.8 | -11.8 | -14.3 | -14.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | -5.0 | -6.0 | -8.0 |
| 2003 | 476.0 | 467.1 | 408.0 | 400.5 | 450.9 | 442.4 | 372.6 | 365.6 | 1,707.8 | 1,675.6 |
| YoY % Change | 6.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
