Real terms advertising growth will not return in the UK until 2004, according to the latest ad forecasts from Zenith Media, released today.
Real term growth The figures show that the five major European ad markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK will show a combined real terms growth (after accounting for inflation) in advertising of 0.2% in 2003, following a 3.2% decline this year. The UK, meanwhile, will fall 0.4% in 2003 and will not see positive growth until 2004, when it will be just 0.9%.
US recovery will be faster according to the figures. Adspend there will grow in real terms by 0.4% in 2003 and by 2.1% in 2004, after a decline of 1.8% in 2002.
Nominal growth In nominal terms, that is if inflation is not accounted for, UK growth is set to be 2.6% in 2003 and 3.8% in 2004, following a 1.9% decline this year. These are downgraded forecasts from Zenith, reflecting a ‘lag’ in US spend as advertising struggles to keep up with the improving economy (see Zenith Downgrades ‘Overly Optimistic’ 2002 Forecasts).
| Zenith Media advertising forecasts | |||||||||
| Nominal | Real terms | ||||||||
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | ||
| France | -4.9 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | -6.6 | -1.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | |
| Germany | -5.5 | -2.8 | 0.5 | 6.3 | -7.8 | -4.2 | -0.4 | 5.0 | |
| Italy | -3.7 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | -6.0 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | |
| Spain | -5.8 | -4.9 | 1.3 | 4.0 | -8.7 | -7.2 | -1.0 | 1.5 | |
| UK | -4.4 | -1.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | -6.1 | -3.6 | -0.4 | 0.9 | |
| Five-country Europe | -4.9 | -1.6 | 2.0 | 4.6 | -7.0 | -3.2 | 0.2 | 2.7 | |
| US | -6.5 | -1.8 | 2.0 | 4.2 | -9.1 | -3.3 | 0.4 | 2.1 | |
| Japan | -2.0 | -2.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -1.3 | -2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | |
| Seven-country total | -5.4 | -1.9 | 1.9 | 3.8 | -7.4 | -3.0 | 0.7 | 2.1 | |
| Source: Zenith Optimedia Group, April 2002 | |||||||||
