Pivotal Research Group has released its 2012 advertising forecast for the United States.
The research group reveal that total advertising is expected to grow in 2012 by 1% year on year on a normalised basis, up from 2.5% growth in 2011 in the US. This market growth reflects a muted, stop-and-go recovery for the period ahead.
National TV will see a market growth of 2.7% in 2012 from 6.0% in 2011. Its budget share has grown significantly in recent years, but may be hitting a peak given pressures to use other media, such as digital.
2011 saw a noticeable rise in advertising growth for online video, up by 33.9%, with 2012 forecast at 21.8% growth. This rapid growth is due to a rise in the amount of inventory available within the market, paired with marketers appreciating the perceived benefits of the medium.
The following table outlines each medium, with growth forecasts for both 2011 and 2012.
| Medium | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|
| National Cable | 9.0% | 4.8% |
| National Broadcast – English | 1.3% | -0.3% |
| + Olympics | -2.3% | 4.5% |
| National Broadcast – Spanish | 5.8% | 4.4% |
| National Syndication | 1.7% | -2.5% |
| Total National TV | 6.0% | 2.7% |
| + Olympics | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Total Magazines | -2.7% | -4.2% |
| National Digital Display | 15.8% | 9.1% |
| Online Video | 33.9% | 21.8% |
| Mobile | 52.4% | 37.0% |
| Total National Digital | 21.5% | 13.9% |
| Total Network & Satellite Radio | 1.8% | -1.0% |
| Total National Newspapers | -6.0% | -6.7% |
| Total Cinema | 5.2% | 4.8% |
| TOTAL NATIONAL MEDIA | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| + Olympics | 4.4% | 3.4% |
| Local Broadcast TV | 3.0% | -0.3% |
| Local Cable TV | 10.1% | 2.7% |
| Total Local TV | 4.5% | 0.3% |
| + Political | -4.0% | 9.9% |
| Total Local Newspapers | -9.6% | -9.4% |
| Total Local Radio | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Total Outdoors | 4.8% | 6.5% |
| Total Local Digital | 10.5% | 9.3% |
| TOTAL LOCAL MEDIA | -0.9% | -1.6% |
| + Political | -3.4% | 1.4% |
| Paid Search | 23.6% | 15.0% |
| Other Direct Online | 12.3% | 15.0% |
| Direct Mail | -0.6% | -1.8% |
| Directories | -21.9% | -22.6% |
| TOTAL DIRECT MEDIA | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| TOTAL ADVERTISING | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| + Political + Olympics | 1.2% | 2.5% |
Source: Pivotal Research Group
