UK Press Advertising On The Up?

UK press advertising revenues may be showing signs an upturn, albeit patchy, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch.

At Trinity Mirror, struggling national revenues have begun to recover in May and June, turning positive after a 10.3% decline in the first five months of the year. The broker is forecasting a full-year national advertising decline of 4.0% for Trinity Mirror, which implies a H2 recovery of around 3.0%.

Regional revenues at Trinity were down by 2.3% during the January-May period, with London and the south-east particularly weak.

Merrill Lynch has also upgraded its 2002 advertising forecasts for regional publisher, Johnston Press, after a better than expected performance in the first five months, with ad revenues rising 2.0%. The broker has increased its full year forecast from 0.5% to 2.0% and is predicting a 3.5% growth in 2003, but on a stronger overall performance than had previously been expected.

Regional papers and their advertising remain much more resilient to the poor ad conditions than their national counterparts. As a result Johnston Press has weathered the storm well, whilst Trinity Mirror’s national titles have dragged its figures down. However, the indications are that an improvement in both national and local revenue is beginning to filter through.

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