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Saatchi Television Forecasts
Saatchi and Saatchi (071 636 5060) has published “UK Television Forecasts To 2003”, examining in detail satellite television, Channel 5, viewing and revenue shares, impacts and CPTs, as well as a full overview of the industry Copies of the report can be obtained from Frank Harrison at Saatchis, at a cost of £150.00.
TELEVISION ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE
| TV AD | SPEND | TV AD | SPEND | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CURRENT | PRICES | CONSTANT | PRICES | |
| YEAR | £M | %CNG | £M | %CNG |
| 1990 | 2287 | 0 | 2287 | -8.6 |
| 1991 | 2340 | 2.3 | 2201 | -3.7 |
| 1992 | 2555 | 9.2 | 2291 | 4.1 |
| 1993 | 2798 | 9.5 | 2390 | 4.3 |
| 1994 | 3106 | 11 | 2526 | 5.7 |
| 1995 | 3447 | 11 | 2671 | 5.7 |
| 1996 | 3827 | 11 | 2823 | 5.7 |
| 1997 | 4248 | 11 | 2985 | 5.7 |
| 1998 | 4715 | 11 | 3155 | 5.7 |
| 1999 | 5233 | 11 | 3335 | 5.7 |
| 2000 | 5809 | 11 | 3526 | 5.7 |
| 2001 | 6448 | 11 | 3728 | 5.7 |
| 2002 | 7157 | 11 | 3941 | 5.7 |
| 2003 | 7945 | 11 | 4166 | 5.7 |
TV AD SPEND AS % OF TOTAL AND GDP
| TV AS % | TV AS % | TV AS % | TV AS % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR | TOT | GDP | TOT | GDP |
| 1990 | 29.6 | 0.42 | 29.6 | 0.42 |
| 1991 | 29.3 | 0.41 | 29.3 | 0.41 |
| 1992 | 30 | 0.41 | 30 | 0.41 |
| 1993 | 30.4 | 0.42 | 30.4 | 0.42 |
| 1994 | 31 | 0.43 | 31 | 0.43 |
| 1995 | 31.5 | 0.44 | 31.5 | 0.45 |
| 1996 | 32.1 | 0.45 | 32.1 | 0.46 |
| 1997 | 32.7 | 0.46 | 32.7 | 0.47 |
| 1998 | 33.3 | 0.47 | 33.3 | 0.49 |
| 1999 | 33.9 | 0.48 | 33.9 | 0.5 |
| 2000 | 34.5 | 0.49 | 34.5 | 0.52 |
| 2001 | 35.2 | 0.51 | 35.2 | 0.53 |
| 2002 | 35.8 | 0.52 | 35.8 | 0.55 |
| 2003 | 36.5 | 0.53 | 36.5 | 0.56 |
BROADBAND CABLE/SATELLITE DISH FORECASTS
| BDBAND | BDBAND | % PENE- | DISH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASSED | CONNECTED | TRATION | HOMES | |
| HOMES’000 | HOMES’000 | ‘000 | ||
| 1990 | 750 | 125 | 16.7 | 1278 |
| 1991 | 1030 | 196 | 19 | 2300 |
| 1992 | 1824 | 420 | 23 | 3950 |
| 1993 | 3004 | 871 | 29 | 5010 |
| 1994 | 4292 | 1502 | 35 | 6027 |
| 1995 | 5579 | 2287 | 41 | 6882 |
| 1996 | 6867 | 3090 | 45 | 7773 |
| 1997 | 8154 | 3832 | 47 | 8257 |
| 1998 | 9442 | 4532 | 48 | 8453 |
| 1999 | 10514 | 5152 | 49 | 8500 |
| 2000 | 11587 | 5794 | 50 | 8550 |
| 2001 | 12231 | 6116 | 50 | 8575 |
| 2002 | 12875 | 6437 | 50 | 8590 |
| 2003 | 12875 | 6437 | 50 | 8600 |
TOTALTV HOMES, 1990-2003 = 21,458,000
CABLE/DISH FORECASTS % SHARE/TV VIEWING
| CABLE/DISH FORECASTS | % SHARE/TV VIEWING | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % ALL TV VIEWING | % COMMERCIAL VIEWING | |||||
| CABLE | DISH | TOTAL | CABLE | DISH | TOTAL | |
| YEAR | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| 1990 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| 1991 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 7.6 | 8.3 |
| 1992 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 1.3 | 12.7 | 14 |
| 1993 | 1.6 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 15.7 | 18.4 |
| 1994 | 2.7 | 11 | 13.7 | 4.5 | 18.2 | 22.8 |
| 1995 | 4.2 | 12.5 | 16.7 | 6.7 | 20.1 | 26.8 |
| 1996 | 5.6 | 14.1 | 19.7 | 8.8 | 22.1 | 30.8 |
| 1997 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 10.7 | 23 | 33.7 |
| 1998 | 8.2 | 15.4 | 23.6 | 12.5 | 23.3 | 35.8 |
| 1999 | 9.4 | 15.4 | 24.8 | 14.1 | 23.2 | 37.3 |
| 2000 | 10.5 | 15.5 | 26.1 | 15.7 | 23.2 | 38.9 |
| 2001 | 11.1 | 15.6 | 26.7 | 16.5 | 23.2 | 39.7 |
| 2002 | 11.7 | 15.6 | 27.3 | 17.3 | 23.1 | 40.5 |
| 2003 | 11.7 | 15.6 | 27.3 | 17.3 | 23.1 | 40.4 |
CHANNEL 5 PENETRATION OF ALL HOUSEHOLDS
| % TOT | % HMS | % TOT | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOMES | IN TSA | HOMES | CHAN 5 | |
| YEAR | IN TSA | CNCTD | CNCTD | HMS’000 |
| 1994 | 35 | 25 | 9 | 1878 |
| 1995 | 48 | 35 | 17 | 3567 |
| 1996 | 60 | 45 | 27 | 5794 |
| 1997 | 60 | 55 | 33 | 7081 |
| 1998 | 60 | 65 | 39 | 8369 |
| 1999 | 60 | 75 | 45 | 9656 |
| 2000 | 60 | 85 | 51 | 10944 |
| 2001 | 60 | 85 | 51 | 10944 |
| 2002 | 60 | 85 | 51 | 10944 |
| 2003 | 60 | 85 | 51 | 10944 |
NOTE: TOTAL TV HOMES FOR 1994-2003 = 21,458,000
CHANNEL 5 SHARE OF VIEWING
| C5 %SHR | C5 %SHR | C5 %SHR | C5 % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C5 SATLT | C5 NON- | IN C5 | SHARE | |
| YEAR | HOMES | SATLT | HOMES | TOTAL TV |
| 1994 | 8 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 1.1 |
| 1995 | 8.3 | 15.5 | 12.1 | 2 |
| 1996 | 8.5 | 16 | 12 | 3.2 |
| 1997 | 8.6 | 16.2 | 11.8 | 3.9 |
| 1998 | 8.7 | 16.3 | 11.7 | 4.6 |
| 1999 | 8.7 | 16.3 | 11.6 | 5.2 |
| 2000 | 8.8 | 16.4 | 11.7 | 5.9 |
| 2001 | 8.8 | 16.4 | 11.5 | 5.9 |
| 2002 | 8.8 | 16.5 | 11.4 | 5.8 |
| 2003 | 8.8 | 16.5 | 11.4 | 5.8 |
TOTAL TV % SHARE OF VIEWING BY CHANNEL
| YEAR | ’91 | ’93 | ’95 | ’97 | ’99 | 2001 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBC1 | 35.2 | 32.9 | 29.5 | 27 | 25.8 | 25.3 | 25.1 |
| BBC2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.2 |
| ITV | 38.7 | 36.4 | 33.9 | 31 | 28.7 | 27.3 | 27.1 |
| CH4 | 8.6 | 8 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| TVAM | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| CBLE | 0.4 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 7 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 11.7 |
| DISH | 4.2 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 15 | 15.4 | 15.6 | 15.6 |
| CH5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
COMMERCIAL TV % SHARE OF AUDIENCE BY CHANNEL
| ITV% | CH4% | TVam% | CBLE% | DISH% | CH5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR | ||||||
| 1990 | 73.6 | 16.4 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 0 |
| 1991 | 70.8 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 7.6 | 0 |
| 1992 | 66.4 | 14.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 12.8 | 0 |
| 1993 | 63 | 13.8 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 15.8 | 0 |
| 1994 | 58.5 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 18.2 | 1.8 |
| 1995 | 54.5 | 11.4 | 4 | 6.7 | 20.1 | 3.2 |
| 1996 | 50.3 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 8.8 | 22 | 5 |
| 1997 | 47.4 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 10.7 | 23 | 5.9 |
| 1998 | 45 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 12.5 | 23.2 | 6.9 |
| 1999 | 43.1 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 14 | 23.2 | 7.9 |
| 2000 | 41.1 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 15.6 | 23.1 | 8.8 |
| 2001 | 40.5 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 16.5 | 23.1 | 8.7 |
| 2002 | 40 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 17.3 | 23.1 | 8.6 |
| 2003 | 40.1 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 17.3 | 23.1 | 8.6 |
% SHARE OF ADULT IMPACTS
| ITV% | CH4% | TVam% | CBLE% | SATL% | CH5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR | ||||||
| 1991 | 73.7 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 4 | 0 |
| 1993 | 68 | 14.9 | 5 | 1.8 | 10.3 | 0 |
| 1995 | 59.5 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 5 | 15.1 | 3.5 |
| 1997 | 51 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 9.1 | 19.5 | 6.4 |
| 1999 | 44.3 | 9 | 3.2 | 13.3 | 22 | 8.1 |
| 2001 | 41.8 | 8.6 | 3 | 15.7 | 22 | 9 |
| 2003 | 41.8 | 8.6 | 3 | 16.2 | 21.7 | 8.8 |
COMMERCIAL TV ADULT GROSS RATECARD CPTS IN CURRENT PRICES
| YEAR | ITV | CH4 | TVAM | CH5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 4.49 | 3.98 | 3.73 | 0 |
| 1993 | 5.11 | 4.32 | 4.32 | 0 |
| 1995 | 6.06 | 5.02 | 4.78 | 3.51 |
| 1997 | 7.23 | 6.09 | 5.53 | 4.43 |
| 1999 | 8.65 | 7.48 | 6.8 | 5.89 |
| 2001 | 10.45 | 8.97 | 8.15 | 7.34 |
| 2003 | 12.82 | 10.98 | 9.98 | 8.99 |
| YEAR | CABLE | SATLT | TOTAL | |
| 1991 | 2.37 | 2.37 | 4.27 | |
| 1993 | 2.68 | 2.68 | 4.66 | |
| 1995 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 5.22 | |
| 1997 | 4.02 | 4.02 | 5.95 | |
| 1999 | 5.08 | 5.08 | 7 | |
| 2001 | 6.31 | 6.31 | 8.42 | |
| 2003 | 7.74 | 7.74 | 10.31 |