ZenithOptimedia forecasts 1.3% UK adspend growth
ZenithOptimedia has upgraded its UK and global adspend growth forecasts, predicting UK growth of 1.3% this year and global growth of 2.2%.
The latest forecast for UK adspend – expected to hit £10.8 billion this year – is a big improvement on December’s forecast of a 2% fall.
Within this, TV revenue is expected to be up by around 7% in Q1, with Q2 up at least 16% year on year. Zenith also expects the World Cup to have a positive effect on revenue.
Zenith has upgraded its global adpsend growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 2.2% – the second upgrade in a row, after 18 months of consecutive downgrades.
It added that “as is usual after a downturn, the global market will improve steadily over the next three years, with 4.1% growth in 2011 and 5.3% in 2012”.
Online’s share of adspend is expected to grow from 12.6% in 2009 to 17.1% in 2012, with paid search accounting for 52.1% of all internet adspend by 2012.
In the developed markets (North America, Western Europe and Japan) Zenith forecasts a 0.8% decline in 2010, followed by 1.8% growth in 2011. North America will see a drop of 1.5% in adspend this year, while Japan drops 0.7% and Western Europe grows 0.4%.
| Major media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, internet) US$ millions, current prices. Currency conversion at 2008 average rates. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
| North America | 179,776 | 156,926 | 154,501 | 157,285 | 162,044 |
| Western Europe | 121,293 | 107,865 | 108,266 | 110,868 | 114,463 |
| Asia Pacific | 107,332 | 101,683 | 107,680 | 114,774 | 123,654 |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 35,583 | 27,356 | 28,909 | 31,373 | 34,555 |
| Latin America | 30,405 | 30,535 | 33,369 | 35,533 | 38,328 |
| Africa/m East/ROW | 20,297 | 21,891 | 23,275 | 24,712 | 26,494 |
| World | 494,686 | 446,257 | 456,000 | 474,544 | 499,539 |
At the end of last month, Carat also upgraded its UK and global adspend forecasts, predicting 2.9% growth in the UK this year, with growth of 4.2% expected in 2011.