Apocalypse soon? Why the ITV/Comcast deal will make new regulation essential
Opinion
Market consolidation will lead to excessive power for dominant US media owners and ad-funded platforms, as well as for most non-UK agency groups. It would spell ‘Apocalypse Now’ for UK audiences, advertisers and the component parts of the UK advertising industry, writes Nick Manning.
ITV’s recent results announcement was understandably non-committal on the progress of negotiations with Comcast, which would lead to a full merger with Sky.
However, it seems probable that the deal could close later this year, redrawing the UK media map and giving the combined business an estimated 70% share of all broadcaster-sold TV advertising revenues.
Industry sentiment favours the deal in order to protect the UK TV sector, but the downstream implications are extraordinary, especially after recent consolidation in the media agency market.
The local media industry is already skiing uphill, and the ITV/Sky combination would be another step towards the domination of non-UK interests.
The media market is already heavily skewed toward US-owned corporations, with repercussions for the UK public, advertisers, the production sector, the entire advertising ecosystem, and ultimately the Exchequer.
We are all, by now, familiar with the decline in advertising revenue suffered by UK media owners operating in a responsible, regulated environment and aiming to produce high-quality content for UK audiences.
Advertising revenue is rapidly accumulating on non-UK platforms and channels that are not subject to the same strictures, and which produce little or no content, incur low non-tech costs, and thus make vast profits.
For example, YouTube’s advertising revenues in the UK are estimated to be as much as $2bn, not far short of ITV’s $2.5bn, but YouTube grew by some 15% in 2025, while ITV declined by 5%.
US domination of the UK media sector
Younger audiences now favour YouTube, where much of the material is arguably amateurish, often non-UK produced and largely American. This is especially true for children’s programming.
However, the actual US domination of the UK media sector isn’t limited to online platforms, and the mooted acquisition of ITV by Comcast will reshape the TV market for viewers and advertisers alike, cementing US control over the UK TV industry.
The growth of Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+, and other streamers has already made inroads into the viewership and ad revenues of UK broadcasters, including ITV.
The effects of this consolidation could have substantial disadvantages for the UK media and advertising sectors.
The proposed merger of ITV and Sky could harm advertisers by further homogenising TV programming, reducing the range of choice for lighter viewers, underserved audiences, and UK-made programmes.
Important domestic content on Channel 4, such as Dirty Business and Molly and the Machines, is jeopardised, especially as UK TV companies have to compete with international corporations for the best content.
Dirty Business shows what happened to the UK water industry after it was sold off to foreign investors. Our media industry could itself suffer a similar fate.
For example, the multi-BAFTA award-winning Adolescence was commissioned by Netflix and was massively popular internationally, yielding huge revenues recognised outside the UK.
It will be increasingly difficult for UK broadcasters to compete, and Comcast’s acquisition of ITV will further internationalise the UK market for both programming and advertising, likely diluting the previously strong domestic culture for viewers and advertisers.
Market distortions in TV airtime buying and selling
Meanwhile, the proposed acquisition of Warner by Paramount/Skydance, although intra-US, could affect Channel 5’s content.
It may even improve as HBO and TNT products are added to the mix, but the deal is worth $111bn, so we can expect costs to be cut to help justify the sticker price, and revenue pressure will be intense.
Both the Comcast/Sky and Paramount/Warner deals could lead to market distortions in the buying and selling of TV airtime. They could lead to a redistribution of advertising revenues that would threaten Channel 4’s content budgets, to the detriment of the viewing public and advertisers.
The UK public has traditionally been keen on long-form UK content (especially soaps), and while there is a trend towards shorter formats on mobile devices, UK content is still the most popular with domestic audiences.
It also delivers higher engagement and attention for advertisers, leading to more effective advertising, and audiences delivered at scale are invariably more cost-effective to buy.
The decline in audiences for mass TV has already reduced its brand-building capability, and any further erosion through reduced UK-specific output could make things worse.
The adverse affect of agency consolidation
There is a parallel development that could further distort the UK media industry.
The potential consolidation in the media market is being matched by agency consolidation, with the combined US-based Omnicom and IPG taking market leadership in the media agency sector.
Omnicom will now account for around 30% of media spend flowing through media agencies, while another 40% will come via WPP and Publicis.
Future agency deals between an enlarged ITV/Sky and a combined Omnicom/IPG, not to mention WPP and Publicis, could materially transform the media market, including the scope for extensive Proprietary Media usage that could materially harm advertisers’ interests if budgets are eroded further through increased agency ‘extraction rates’ and the diversion of budgets to those media who offer the sweetest deals to the agencies.
The Comcast/ITV and Omnicom/IPG deals also further internationalise the buying of TV airtime, with deals being struck across borders that enable a number of financial games to be played, including tax benefits.
The advertising holding companies’ media agency networks already aim to strike cross-border deals, and Comcast’s new UK market share would open the door to much more.
Consolidation in both the media owner and media agency markets could adversely affect advertisers, reducing choice on both the demand and supply sides and consolidating volume leverage into fewer industry players.
This comes with further strong-arming of media already suffering from revenue starvation.
In short, market consolidation could lead to excessive power for the dominant US media owners and ad-funded platforms, as well as for the non-UK agency groups (with the exception of WPP).
This is likely to be detrimental to UK audiences, advertisers and the component parts of the UK advertising industry, such as the production sector, data providers and other support businesses.
Many thousands of jobs are at stake in the UK, compounding the effects of economic stagnation and AI.
The effects on the Exchequer could be substantial, with US media and agency corporations planning to avoid UK Corporation Tax rates, resulting in a loss of tax receipts through job cuts and a resultant increase in social costs.
The media and advertising markets will consolidate still further if left to their own devices, and the winners will be the giant US corporations, their stock and bondholders, their senior executives and some of the people who work for them in the UK.
Legislation is required
We can be sure that unconstrained markets are not effective ones for the UK as a whole, as only the most powerful win at the expense of the less well-funded, and this matters more in media than in most other industries.
People’s lives are influenced and shaped from cradle to grave and dawn to dusk by the media, so what people see and hear matters enormously to everyone. Media use is optional but universal.
To address the real but potential risks of market consolidation in the media and agency sectors, new legislation is required, including the creation of new media channels.
Those people and businesses in the UK who are most vulnerable to the harmful effects of market consolidation should be protected by the UK Government in order to avoid the decay of one of the UK’s most important business sectors.
We are witnessing a tectonic re-shaping of the UK media industry and advertising market, fuelled by the wealthiest corporations on the planet and vast technology resources.
Advertisers have some power to drive change, but their individual and collective voices need to be amplified and augmented by those of others concerned about the direction of the UK media and advertising industries.
The various trade associations have always been resistant to new regulation, primarily because of concerns about their members’ ability to operate freely.
However, those days may be over in the face of unprecedented, transformational forces affecting the delicate balance of the media and advertising ecosystem.
It is time for the combined energies of the trade associations and other entities that care about the future of the UK media and advertising sector to combine resources to oppose the erosion of one of the UK’s most important sectors, both financially and culturally.
Those voices should unite to push for legislative change to protect everyone, especially the audiences served by the media and advertising sectors. New regulation is vital.
If this all sounds alarmist, that is entirely deliberate. It may currently be ‘Apocalypse Soon’, but it will soon be ‘Now’.
This is not a drill.
And as individuals who care about the direction of travel, we should add our voices and support wherever we can. If you don’t care about these matters, check your pulse.
There will be substantial further job losses in the UK if the free market is left unchecked, so it is in everyone’s interests to help maintain a healthy, pluralistic, diverse media and advertising eco-system before it’s too late.
Nick Manning is the co-founder of Manning Gottlieb Media (now MG OMD) and was chief strategy officer at Ebiquity for over a decade. He now owns a mentoring business, Encyclomedia, which offers strategic advice to companies in the media and advertising industries, and is the non-executive chair of Media Marketing Compliance.