Six retail media trends that will change FMCG and CPG marketing forever

Opinion – Week in Focus

We’re on the brink of six major shifts that will fundamentally reshape retail and commerce media. Capture’s MD details the trends to watch.

Technology isn’t just evolving, it’s fundamentally reshaping how consumers discover, decide and buy, and commerce media is where those moments now converge.

Discovery now happens through conversational AI, social feeds and shoppable content. Decision-making is shifting towards Answer Engine Optimisation (AEO) and Generative Engine Optimisation (GEO), where brands compete not for attention but for inclusion in the answer itself. And increasingly, purchases are happening instantly within the same environment as discovery, whether that’s a social, streaming or AI interface.

The speed of change is still accelerating. AI agents can interpret intent before a human even searches. Media buying is becoming autonomous. Predictive systems are replacing real-time optimisation. What’s unfolding across commerce media isn’t an incremental evolution, but a structural reset.

FMCG and CPG brands are rapidly increasing their investment in retail media, but most are at very different levels of maturity. While some are orchestrating true omnichannel campaigns, connecting activity across platforms to deliver a unified consumer experience, many remain stuck running siloed campaigns without the data infrastructure, technology integration, or strategic frameworks needed to capitalise on what’s now possible.

Brand marketing has evolved into a multi-dimensional orchestration challenge. Dozens of signals, systems, agents, channels, and consumer moments need to be managed in real-time, anchored by a Single Source of Truth (SSoT).

At the same time, the industry is on the brink of six major shifts that will fundamentally reshape marketing over the next few years, placing commerce and retail media firmly at its core.

1. Commerce media networks and the race to a Single Source of Truth (SSoT)

As commerce media networks scale, the need for an SSoT has become critical. This means integrating data from retail media networks (RMNs), owned channels, trade spend, CRM, social, and in-store into a single, coherent system. Without this foundation, unified commerce media isn’t possible.

A robust SSoT enables true 360-degree profiling, combining transaction and behaviour data, media exposure and performance data, to create a complete view of the consumer. This unified dataset unlocks better planning, smarter activation and, crucially, consistent measurement across multiple retailers and touchpoints in a more standardised way. 

With this foundation, brands can run genuinely omnichannel campaigns where messaging, creative and offers dynamically adapt to context, intent and the shopper’s likely next move. 

2. AEO and GEO begin to replace SEO

Traditional search is losing its dominance as consumers increasingly turn to AI-powered interfaces to ask questions, compare products, and make decisions.

This shift is driving the rise of AEO and GEO. AEO focuses on structuring content, so AI-powered answer engines will extract, cite and recommend it in generated responses. GEO extends this further by ensuring a brand’s content is woven throughout an AI’s understanding of a particular category.

Visibility depends on being the best answer, not just the top link.

For FMCG brands, this is particularly important in high-consideration categories, where consumers actively seek guidance and recommendations, such as when choosing dietary supplements or baby products. In these moments, authority and credibility determine inclusion.   

3. AI-powered ad formats and creative

Advertising is shifting from exposure to eligibility. Google’s testing of ‘Direct Offers’ in AI-driven environments signals a move toward hyper-personalised, in-the-moment messaging, where promotions are triggered when purchase intent is high. Future applications will extend to include loyalty rewards, bundles, and dynamic pricing.

For FMCG brands, this means a fundamental rethinking of what an advert is. Campaigns may become more effective, with higher conversion rates and less waste, but also more dependent on algorithms that control when, where, and how messages appear.

4. Shoppable CTV and influencer content go mainstream

Connected TV is rapidly evolving from a brand-building channel into a performance channel. Viewers can now engage, explore and purchase directly from the screen.

According to eMarketer, US retail media CTV ad spend is projected to reach $10bn by 2028. It is the integration of retailer first-party data that is accelerating this transformation.

Amazon’s recent partnership with Netflix enables advertisers to use Amazon’s first-party commerce data to target audiences within Netflix’s ad-supported environment. In the UK, platforms including Sky and ITVX are building increasingly sophisticated first-party data capabilities, connecting exposure to shopper outcomes.

At the same time, platforms like TikTok and Instagram are accelerating the shift from influence to transaction. Creators are no longer just shaping opinions; they’re driving sales through embedded shopping and live commerce. Creator content is also being leveraged by brands in retail media inventory beyond traditional social channels.

For FMCG brands, this demands a rethink of shoppable video strategy spanning CTV, social video and live commerce. CTV ads should be treated as shoppable, data-targeted, attribution-enabled commerce assets, planned as part of the purchase journey.

5. Agentic commerce will redefine the path to purchase

Unlike AI-assisted commerce, where the consumer still makes the final call, a new model is emerging where AI agents act autonomously on behalf of the consumer.

Here, ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ agents complete transactions end-to-end, interacting directly via apps and LLMs, with minimal or no human intervention. 

Already, we are seeing early-stage forms of agentic commerce, such as Amazon’s Smart Reorders, which automatically reorder everyday products based on usage patterns. For FMCG, this is a natural fit: high-frequency, low-consideration purchases which consumers are willing to delegate. 

With the battle for preference increasingly happening before a human is even in the loop, brands need to strengthen the fundamentals AI systems rely on: structured, consistent product data; accurate, high-quality content; strong ratings and reviews; and credible third-party validation. 

If products aren’t optimised for AI-driven discovery, brands risk becoming effectively invisible.

6. Predictive optimisation will separate leaders from followers

Marketing is moving beyond reacting to data towards anticipating it.

Real-time optimisation is already well established. The next frontier is predictive optimisation, where AI models forecast behaviour and act before signals fully emerge.

This changes how campaigns are planned, how budgets are allocated, and how quickly brands can respond to opportunities. Media investment can be modelled across different scenarios, enabling smarter, preemptive decisions. 

Beyond promotions, predictive systems will reshape media allocation, enabling brands to model channel performance under different market conditions and pre-allocate investment accordingly.

Why orchestration is now the core skill

Individually, each of these trends is significant, but together they represent a single, interconnected orchestration challenge.

Success now depends on coordinating data, media, creative, commerce, and technology in real time and with precision. The advantage lies in seamless connectivity. And for the brands that can orchestrate these layers right, the opportunity is significant.

Helen Johnson is the managing director at Capture, part of the SMG agency network