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Long Term UK Commercial Radio Revenue Forecasts

Long Term UK Commercial Radio Revenue Forecasts

Below are long-term commercial radio revenue and total advertising forecasts from the Advertising Association (AA), as reported by the Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB). The AA has produced a high and low option for the predictions, as shown.

Radio’s share of advertising is expected to break the 5.0% barrier around 2009, in both the high and low scenarios.
Long Term Radio Advertising Growth Forecasts, High Option 
           
  Commercial Radio Revenue (£m)  YoY Growth  All Ad Revenue (£m)  YoY Growth  Radio Share 
1997 400   10,477   3.8%
1998 460 15.0% 11,328 8.1% 4.1%
1999 517 12.4% 12,159 7.3% 4.3%
2000 595 15.1% 13,402 10.2% 4.4%
2001 579 -2.7% 13,783 2.8% 4.2%
2002 667 15.2% 14,820 7.5% 4.5%
2003 706 5.8% 15,683 5.8% 4.5%
2004 699 -1.0% 15,876 1.2% 4.4%
2005 730 4.4% 16,291 2.6% 4.5%
2006 829 13.6% 18,019 10.6% 4.6%
2007 946 14.1% 19,704 9.4% 4.8%
2008 1034 9.3% 21,271 8.0% 4.9%
2009 1,130 9.3% 22,593 6.2% 5.0%
2010 1,212 7.3% 23,766 5.2% 5.1%
2011 1,301 7.3% 24,861 4.6% 5.2%
2012 1,310 0.7% 25,348 2.0% 5.2%
2013 1,335 1.9% 25,678 1.3% 5.2%
           
Source: Advertising Association, November 2001 
Long Term Radio Advertising Growth Forecasts, Low Option 
           
  Commercial Radio Revenue (£m)  YoY Growth  All Ad Revenue (£m)  YoY Growth  Radio Share 
1997 400   10,477   3.8%
1998 460 15.0% 11,328 8.1% 4.1%
1999 517 12.4% 12,159 7.3% 4.3%
2000 595 15.1% 13,402 10.2% 4.4%
2001 573 -3.7% 13,636 1.7% 4.2%
2002 618 7.9% 14,370 5.4% 4.3%
2003 651 5.3% 14,790 2.9% 4.4%
2004 667 2.5% 14,828 0.3% 4.5%
2005 696 4.3% 15,131 2.0% 4.6%
2006 783 12.5% 16,660 10.1% 4.7%
2007 857 9.5% 17,861 7.2% 4.8%
2008 937 9.3% 19,126 7.1% 4.9%
2009 1,006 7.4% 20,112 5.2% 5.0%
2010 1,086 8.0% 20,936 4.1% 5.2%
2011 1,132 4.2% 21,495 2.7% 5.3%
2012 1,150 1.6% 21,685 0.9% 5.3%
2013 1,160 0.9% 21,359 -1.5% 5.4%
           
Source: Advertising Association, November 2001 

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