Current radio trading in the UK remains uncertain despite a degree of stabilisation in the advertising decline, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch.
UK trading appears erratic on a monthly basis with no definitive pick up, says the broker. “March was very strong (possibly boosted by an early Easter) while April was poor (the inverse of March?). May and June appear better though few are brave enough to call the turn as yet,” said analysts.
However, recent results from Capital (see Capital Radio Profits Hit By Ad Decline), GWR (see GWR To Focus On UK Market As Group Profits Fall) and EMAP (see EMAP ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ On Future Trading) have all pointed toward a slowing in momentum of the decline.
Merrill Lynch is forecasting a recovery in H2; Q3 is still uncertain but Q4 should bounce strongly due to very easy comparables, it said. Overall 2002 revenues are expected to be to be flat; 2003 is forecast to show growth of 5-7%.
US radio US radio trading appears to have definitively turned already, according to the broker. Its US analysts now forecast US increases of 4-6% in Q2 2002 and 7-9% in Q3. For 2002 as a whole it is forecasting sales growth of 4-5%.
