US Newspapers Show First Positive Quarter Since Q4 2000
Advertising revenues at many major US newspaper groups have just seen their first quarterly gain after six consecutive quarters of decline, according to estimates by Merrill Lynch. This is consistent with the pattern of recovery that was seen following the recession of 1990-1991, say analysts.
Total advertising revenues fell by 9% during the full year 2001, with declines in H2 reaching double digits. In Q1 and Q2 2002, total ad revenues declined 6.2% and 1.8% respectively. Merrill is forecasting an increase of around 1.0% in Q3; Q4 should be stronger, at around 4.0%, but this still translates to a full year retraction of around 1.0%.
Moving into 2003, the first quarter is expected to show more healthy growth, not least because the comparisons with the previous year are easier and newsprint costs should remain flat.
| US Newspaper Adspend Forecasts | ||||
| 2002 | 2003 | |||
| Spend ($m) | Growth (%) | Spend ($m) | Growth (%) | |
| National | 6,934 | -1.0 | 7,246 | 4.5 |
| Retail | 21,196 | 2.5 | 21,991 | 3.8 |
| Classified | 15,890 | -4.4 | 16,605 | 4.5 |
| Total | 44,020 | -0.6 | 45,842 | 4.1 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, November 2002 | ||||
