Asia-Pacific Digital Television Forecasts From Informa Media
This year will witness the start of a ‘massive expansion’ in the growth of digital television (DTV) in the Asia Pacific region, with growth forecast to be 57% over 2001, reaching 7.9 million homes.
By the end of 2002 there will be 489 million analogue TV households, falling to 257 million by 2010. Accordingly, the overall penetration of DTV in the Asia Pacific region will reach 28% by 2010, with the cable platform accounting for half of this.
Japan leads the way in terms of growth rate, but the sheer size of China will soon see it become the market leader, says the report. By 2010, China will contribute half the region’s digital homes; Japan will retain second place with 26 million, with India not far behind.
Digital TV Households (000) | ||||
2001 | 2002 | 2005 | 2010 | |
Australia | 737 | 807 | 1,646 | 4,126 |
China | 0 | 69 | 11,886 | 78,112 |
Hong Kong | 30 | 5 | 205 | 1,164 |
India | 0 | 0 | 3,301 | 22,528 |
Indonesia | 30 | 31 | 149 | 430 |
Japan | 2,770 | 4,032 | 10,164 | 25,514 |
Malaysia | 740 | 833 | 1,144 | 2,228 |
New Zealand | 303 | 409 | 546 | 933 |
Philippines | 8 | 27 | 285 | 1,943 |
Singapore | 35 | 49 | 231 | 736 |
South Korea | 26 | 1,138 | 5,074 | 10,996 |
Taiwan | 79 | 133 | 1,355 | 4,055 |
Thailand | 255 | 285 | 399 | 3,445 |
Total | 5,013 | 7,851 | 36,385 | 156,854 |
Source: Informa Media Group, December 2002 |
Asia-Pacific Digital TV Penetration, 2010 | |||||
Cable | Satellite | DSL Ent. | DTT | Total | |
Australia | 11 | 16 | 10 | 17 | 54 |
China | 12 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
Hong Kong | 23 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 50 |
India | 17 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 24 |
Indonesia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Japan* | 31 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 57 |
Malaysia | 2 | 34 | 4 | 15 | 55 |
New Zealand | 6 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 65 |
Philippines | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
Singapore | 37 | 0 | 14 | 15 | 66 |
South Korea | 40 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 70 |
Taiwan | 49 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 63 |
Thailand | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
Total | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 28 |
Source: Informa Media Group, December 2002 |
Subscription revenues Subscription revenues are forecast to rise dramatically, primarily due to the greater choice provided by digital transmissions. Total revenues are predicted to rise more than ten-fold between 1995 and 2010. By 2010, Japan, China, India and South Korea will account for 81% of the US$31 billion total. Japan alone will take 44% in 2010.
By 2010, cable will bring in more than two-thirds of subscription TV revenues, with DTH accounting for 19%, and DSL entertainment 12%. Most countries will more than double their subscription revenues between 2002 and 2010.
Pay-per-view (PPV) and video on-demand films (VOD) will raise ‘considerable’ revenues for digital operators, according to Informa. By 2010, the region is expected to receive US$1.9 billion from PPV and VOD, with cable contributing 57% of this total; about 57% of this total will come from Japan.
Subscription TV Revenues (US$ million) | |||||
1995 | 2001 | 2002 | 2005 | 2010 | |
Australia | 11 | 516 | 571 | 833 | 1,742 |
China | 504 | 1,634 | 1,750 | 2,171 | 3,299 |
Hong Kong | 52 | 225 | 235 | 355 | 627 |
India | 450 | 1,270 | 1,846 | 2,729 | 4,980 |
Indonesia | 0 | 25 | 34 | 99 | 300 |
Japan* | 1,015 | 5,081 | 5,816 | 8,392 | 13,593 |
Malaysia | 0 | 127 | 164 | 238 | 397 |
New Zealand | 38 | 136 | 168 | 214 | 344 |
Philippines | 21 | 128 | 162 | 256 | 479 |
Singapore | 1 | 55 | 67 | 104 | 165 |
South Korea | 0 | 603 | 1,017 | 1,969 | 3,307 |
Taiwan | 503 | 952 | 998 | 1,162 | 1,455 |
Thailand | 21 | 110 | 119 | 161 | 278 |
Total | 2,615 | 10,862 | 12,946 | 18,685 | 30,967 |
Source: Informa Media Group, December 2002 |
The report also shows that the region will contain 555 million television households by 2010, an increase of 116 million since 1995. Of this, 38% will subscribe to cable (analogue and digital), 3% to digital DTH packages, 2% to DSL entertainment and 9% will receive DTT signals. This leaves 47% of TV households that will only take analogue terrestrial signals.
Informa says that some governments have issued provisional dates for analogue switch-off, but most of these are considered to be too optimistic.
“The claim that Asia Pacific will have 49 million DTT homes by 2010 may appear extraordinary considering the region has very few at present. However, many governments have issued licences for DTT provision and some have also set ambitious dates for analogue switch-off. As with many of the forecasts, China is assumed to adopt DTT soon. Of the 2010 total, 35 million DTT homes are expected to be in China,” says the report.