After compiling and analysing a broad selection of other high-profile predictions, eMarketer is forecasting that US advertising spend will grow by 4.7% in 2003.
In addition, JP Morgan includes direct mail and ‘other’; Jupiter includes yellow pages, direct mail and ‘other’; Myers includes yellow pages; Universal McCann includes direct mail, yellow pages and ‘miscellaneous’; Veronis includes yellow pages and Zenith includes cinema.
eMarketer also notes that whilst the majority of marketers revise their budgets on an annual basis, some re-evaluate marketing plans as frequently as once a month. This means that all forecasts must be open to a degree of flexible re-interpretation.
Comparisons Of US Advertising Growth Forecasts | ||||
Growth (%) | ||||
Group | Date | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
Merrill Lynch | Jan-03 | 4.0 | – | – |
JP Morgan | Aug-02 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
Universal McCann | Dec-02 | 5.0 | – | – |
eMarketer | Dec-02 | 4.7 | – | – |
Standard & Poor’s | Aug-02 | 5.1 | – | – |
Jupiter Research | Oct-02 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.6 |
Global Insight | Nov-02 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.4 |
Veronis Suhler | Jul-02 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 5.9 |
Myers Group | Dec-02 | 2.8 | 4.1 | – |
Zenith Optimedia | Dec-02 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
CMR | Jan-03 | 3.3 | – | – |
Source: eMarketer, updates from MediaTelINSIGHT |