UK Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts From Merrill Lynch – February 2003
The latest Merrill Lynch UK television industry forecasts of growth and subscribers by multiple platforms are shown below.
Further analysis of these figures will follow shortly in the Forecasts section of MediaTelINSIGHT. The previous set of forecasts from Merrill Lynch can be found BSkyB’s Lead In UK Pay-TV Market Extends – Merrill Lynch Long-Term Forecasts.
| Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts In UK | ||||||||||||||
| 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| No. UK TV Households | 23,710 | 23,915 | 24,102 | 24,283 | 24,465 | 24,648 | 24,833 | 24,957 | 25,082 | 25,208 | 25,334 | 25,460 | 25,588 | 25,716 |
| Total UK DTH & Cable & DTT Subscribers | 6,027 | 6,389 | 7,809 | 9,446 | 10,359 | 9,655 | 10,270 | 10,774 | 11,643 | 12,515 | 13,332 | 14,056 | 14,531 | 14,907 |
| Total Digital Pay TV Subscribers | 244 | 2,737 | 6,521 | 8,718 | 8,417 | 9,542 | 10,501 | 11,519 | 12,515 | 13,332 | 14,056 | 14,531 | 14,907 | |
| Total Digital TV Homes | 244 | 2,737 | 6,546 | 8,793 | 9,317 | 11,042 | 12,601 | 14,319 | 16,065 | 17,632 | 18,956 | 19,931 | 20,807 | |
| Total DTT FTA TV Homes (Freeview) | 25 | 75 | 900 | 1,500 | 2,100 | 2,800 | 3,550 | 4,300 | 4,900 | 5,400 | 5,900 | |||
| BSkyB Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 14.7 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 20.2 | 22.5 | 25.3 | 27.3 | 28.3 | 28.9 | 29.4 | 29.8 | 30.2 | 30.4 | 30.6 |
| Broadband Cable Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 10.0 | 11.8 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 14.6 | 15.7 | 17.2 | 18.6 | 20.0 | 20.9 | 21.6 |
| ITV Digital Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 0.1 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | ||||||||||
| DSL Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.8 | |||
| Total DTH,B.Cable,ITV Digital & DSL Pen. Of UK % HHs | 24.7 | 25.9 | 31.7 | 38.9 | 42.3 | 39.2 | 41.4 | 43.2 | 46.4 | 49.6 | 52.6 | 55.2 | 56.8 | 58.0 |
| DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) Subscribers | 9 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 75 | 439 | 766 | 1,052 | 1,296 | 1,393 | 1,492 | |||
| Total Cable (in 000s) | 2,541 | 3,012 | 3,562 | 3,562 | 3,618 | 3,409 | 3,471 | 3,642 | 3,948 | 4,328 | 4,721 | 5,081 | 5,360 | 5,558 |
| Broadband Homes Passed | 10,694 | 11,904 | 12,650 | 12,664 | 12,451 | 12,398 | 12,398 | 12,658 | 13,084 | 13,748 | 14,391 | 14,961 | 15,444 | 15,787 |
| Broadband Cable % Built Out | 45.1 | 49.8 | 52.5 | 52.2 | 50.9 | 50.3 | 49.9 | 50.7 | 52.2 | 54.5 | 56.8 | 58.8 | 60.4 | 61.4 |
| Broadband Cable Penetration % | 22.2 | 23.7 | 25.7 | 28.1 | 29.1 | 29.9 | 30.7 | 31.5 | 32.3 | 33.1 | 33.9 | 34.7 | 34.9 | 35.1 |
| BSkyB Analogue | 3,486 | 3,133 | 1,796 | 233 | ||||||||||
| BSkyB Digital | 225 | 2,064 | 4,667 | 5,495 | 6,234 | 6,784 | 7,058 | 7,256 | 7,421 | 7,560 | 7,680 | 7,778 | 7,857 | |
| DTT (Digital Terrestrial TV) Subscribers | 19 | 527 | 975 | 1,234 | ||||||||||
| BSkyB UK Residential DTH | 3,486 | 3,358 | 3,860 | 4,899 | 5,495 | 6,234 | 6,784 | 7,058 | 7,256 | 7,421 | 7,560 | 7,680 | 7,778 | 7,857 |
| UK Broadband Cable Subscribers | 2,374 | 2,826 | 3,245 | 3,562 | 3,618 | 3,409 | 3,471 | 3,642 | 3,948 | 4,328 | 4,721 | 5,081 | 5,360 | 5,558 |
| UK Narrowband Cable Subscribers | 81 | 89 | 27 | |||||||||||
| Cable Digital | 146 | 870 | 1,977 | 2,170 | 2,473 | 3,369 | 3,823 | 4,328 | 4,721 | 5,081 | 5,360 | 5,558 | ||
| Cable Analogue | 2,374 | 2,826 | 3,099 | 2,692 | 1,640 | 1,239 | 728 | 273 | 125 | |||||
| SMATV | 86 | 97 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| % of Pay TV Subs that are Digital | 4.0 | 35.0 | 69.0 | 84.0 | 87.0 | 93.0 | 98.0 | 99.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |
| % of TV Homes that are Digital | 1.0 | 11.4 | 27.0 | 35.9 | 37.8 | 44.5 | 50.5 | 57.1 | 63.7 | 69.6 | 74.5 | 77.9 | 80.9 | |
| BSkyB Res DTH (Growth) | 3.9 | -3.7 | 14.9 | 26.9 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Broadband Cable (Growth) | 26.7 | 19.1 | 14.8 | 9.8 | 1.6 | -5.8 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 3.7 |
| ITV Digital TV (Growth) | 2655.0 | 85.0 | 26.6 | |||||||||||
| DSL (Growth) | 34.0 | 2.0 | 20.7 | 404.3 | 487.9 | 74.3 | 37.4 | 23.2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | ||||
| DTH+Broadband Cable+ITV Digital+DSL (Growth) | 12.8 | 6.0 | 22.2 | 21.0 | 21.0 | -6.8 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, January 2003 | ||||||||||||||