The rate of worldwide DSL broadband subscriber growth increased during the second half of last year and continues to be a ‘telecoms success story’, according to a new report from Point Topic.
Point Topic says that the figures represent clear evidence that DSL is firmly established in a pattern of steady growth. However, this does not necessarily mean that every country will see the growth rates enjoyed by South Korea and Japan, where particular social and geographical factors are behind rapid broadband take-up.
The UK saw growth of 89.3% year on year in H2 2002, putting it second in the top ten, behind China’s substantial 214.0% jump. Despite this strong growth, though, the UK’s DSL market is still too small to feature in the top ten markets in absolute terms (currently led by the US). Even in terms of penetration – for which South Korea is top – the UK does not yet make the top ten.
The report also notes that the importance of cable modems needs to be taken into account in the analysis of many broadband markets, particularly the USA, Canada, Austria, the Netherlands and the UK, where they are more numerous than DSL.
Top Ten Countries For % Growth In DSL Lines, H2 2002 | ||
Rank | Country | H2 2002 % growth |
1 | China | 214.0 |
2 | UK | 89.3 |
3 | France | 86.9 |
4 | Finland | 82.5 |
5 | Switzerland | 77.9 |
6 | Israel | 72.4 |
7 | Chile | 71.4 |
8 | Japan | 70.9 |
9 | Australia | 70.5 |
10 | Netherlands | 69.6 |
Note: Only countries with over 100,000 DSL lines are listed. | ||
Source: Point Topic, March 2003 |
Full year figures show a worldwide growth of 90.8%, taking the total number of DSL subscribers to 35.9 million. A majority 86.1% of these customers are residential, with just 13.9% of lines rented by businesses.
Western Europe showed growth of 121.0%, taking its total subs to 9.4 million.
DSL Lines (000s) As At Year-End 2002 | ||||||
Total Subscribers | Residential Subscribers | Residential % of total | Business Subscribers | Business % of total | % Annual Growth | |
Asia-Pacific | 14,518 | 12,977 | 89.4 | 1,540 | 10.6 | 82.6 |
Western Europe | 9,379 | 7,638 | 81.4 | 1,741 | 18.6 | 121.0 |
North America | 8,177 | 6,894 | 84.3 | 1,283 | 15.7 | 48.4 |
South & East Asia | 2,652 | 2,489 | 93.9 | 163 | 6.1 | 321.8 |
Latin America | 875 | 698 | 79.8 | 177 | 20.2 | 117.4 |
Middle East & Africa | 173 | 137 | 79.0 | 37 | 21.0 | 262.1 |
Eastern Europe | 124 | 70 | 56.2 | 54 | 43.8 | 274.9 |
World total | 35,897 | 30,903 | 86.1 | 4,994 | 13.9 | 90.8 |
Source: Point Topic, March 2003 |
Point Topic forecasts that whilst DSL percentage growth rates will naturally drop as the customer base gets larger, growth in absolute terms should remain relatively steady after initial, rapid expansion.