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Seasoned Net Users Will Hold Sway In 2007, Says Jupiter

Seasoned Net Users Will Hold Sway In 2007, Says Jupiter

In 2007, the majority of internet users in prominent western countries will be experienced surfers. Even now, the US can no longer claim be the most web savvy nation, according to a study by Jupiter Research.

North America pioneered internet use but growth has slowed in recent years and CommerceNet estimates that by 2005, 68% of online users will come from outside the region.

Europe’s internet population is on target to top 200 million before the end of the year (see European Internet Usage Continues To Climb) but countries are progressing at varying speeds and it is interesting to monitor developments in different parts of the continent.

For its study, Jupiter divided the online population into into four categories. “Super Net Vets” are defined as those users with 5 or more years online tenure. “Net Vets” have between 2 and 5 years experience while “Intermediates” have been using the internet for between 1 and 2 years. Those with less than a year’s acquaintance with the web are described as “newbies”

Internet penetration is highest in Sweden where some 73% of residents access the web (see Almost Half Of Europeans Are Online, Finds Forrester). According to Jupiter, 87% of these have at least two years experience of the medium. This exceeds even the US where 79% of users are either “Net Vets” or “Super Net Vets”.

In 2002, the make up of the online population in Germany was broadly similar to that of the UK although users in this country tend to be slightly more experienced. The Mediterranean countries had the highest proportion of recently initiated surfers with 24% of Spanish and 20% of Italian users falling into the category of “Newbies”.

As saturation level approaches, web converts will be at a premium and by 2007, less than 10% of users in the countries studied will be new users. A remarkable 85% of Swedish internet users will have five or more years online tenure ahead of the UK on 76% and the US with 72%.

Germany will see the biggest drop in the number of “Intermediates” while Italy is set to make significant progress and surpass France in terms of the percentage of experienced users.

Internet Population By Tenure (%) 
                 
Country  Online Experience 
   <1 year  1-2 years  2-5 years  5+ years 
   2002  2007  2002  2007  2002  2007  2002  2007 
Sweden 5 2 8 3 59 10 28 85
US 10 4 11 5 41 19 38 72
UK 12 3 13 4 49 18 26 76
Germany 12 3 21 4 54 21 13 72
France 10 7 18 8 51 30 10 56
Spain 24 8 19 8 38 28 18 57
Italy 20 3 20 5 53 26 6 66
Source: Jupiter Research, August 2003 

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