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Jack Myers Cautious Over 2005 Ad Spending

Jack Myers Cautious Over 2005 Ad Spending

Jack Myers, has revised upwards its 2004 and 2005 advertising spending growth forecast to 6.8% and 2.2% respectively, however the media commentary group has warned, ‘although most forecasters are reasonably bullish, there are early warning signs on the horizon to suggest that the 2.2% growth forecast may prove to be overly optimistic’.

Although every indication points to a strong media economy for the remainder of 2004 and into 2005, a slowdown in advertising spend is inevitable when compared to 2004, due to post-Olympic and election slowdown.

As previously predicted, online advertising is expected to be the run-away winner in both 2004 and 2005, growing at 25% and 23% respectively, while local and national spot television advertisements look set to struggle over the next year when compared to this year. This sector is expected to fall from a growth of 9% to -1%.

A major swing in spending on newspapers is expected next year, with reduced consumer confidence, continued high unemployment and high personal debt all set to hold back retail spending. Newspaper growth is expected to fall 1% in 2005, compared to a 3.5% increase in 2004.

Magazines and local/regional cable television continue to be a bright spot over the next few years, with spending this year expected to continue similarly next year.

Jack Myers said: “Overall, we see few changes in the general economy or media economy that would suggest an improved 2005 outlook beyond our conservative forecast of one-year ago. Although most forecasters are reasonably bullish, there are early warning signs on the horizon to suggest that the 2.2% growth forecast may prove to be overly optimistic.”

2005 Myers Media Spending Forecast 
             
  2004  2005 
  % Growth  $  % Share  % Growth  $  % Share 
Newspapers 3.5 46,300 25.5 -1.0 45,837 24.7
Broadcast Networks 6.5 17,398 9.6 2.0 17,746 9.6
Local & National Spot TV 9.0 26,511 14.6 -1.0 26,246 14.1
Broadcast Syndication 4.0 2,907 1.6 2.0 2,966 1.6
Radio 3.0 20,161 11.1 1.0 20,363 11.0
Yellow Pages 0.0 14,117 7.8 2.0 13,835 7.5
Magazines 8.5 20,832 11.5 4.0 21,665 11.7
Network Cable Television 9.6 14,659 8.1 8.0 15,832 8.5
Local/Regional Cable TV 11.0 5,120 2.8 9.0 5,581 3.0
Online 25.0 7,814 4.3 23.0 9,611 5.2
Outdoor 5.0 5,663 3.1 3.0 5,833 3.1
Total Advertising  6.3%  181,483  100.0  2.2%  185,514  100.0 
             
Direct Marketing  5.5%  53,870     2.0%  54,947   
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Jack Myers
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