Jack Myers, in revising its 2005 US adspend forecast upwards in December, joined other key industry prognosticators in predicting a more positive outlook for the US advertising market in 2005; largely driven by an expected increase in online advertising expenditure.
The media commentary group’s optimism for 2005 is echoed by analyst Merrill Lynch, who predicts a 4.9% increase in adspend, revised down from 5.2% (see Merrill Lynch Conservative In US Ad Forecasts).
Advertising agency, Universal McCann, is the most optimistic in forecasting a 6.4% growth rate for US adspend (see Universal McCann Predicts Positive Outlook For 2005).
Aegis-owned subsidiary group, Carat, is slightly less bullish, revising its 2005 predictions down from 4.8% to 4.5% (see UK Adspend Forecast To Rise By 4.2% In 2005). ZenithOptimedia however, has pushed its estimates up and is forecasting a 4.2% increase, up from a more conservative 3.0% (see Cost of Advertising To Rise Ahead Of Inflation).
The lowest of all the 2005 forecasts comes from global research agency, Interdeco. In its Ad Barometer report, it predicts only a 3.5% rise in US advertising expenditure (see Global Advertising Recovery Confirmed).
According to figures based on a consensus of the most recent forecasts compiled by MediaTel Insight, US adspend is predicted to increase by 4.3% in 2005. While this figure is lower than that expected for 2004, the outlook for the forthcoming year nevertheless remains solid.
LATEST US ADVERTISING GROWTH FORECASTS | |||
Growth (%) | |||
2003 | 2004 | 2005 | |
Merrill Lynch (12/04) | 3.8 | 6.7 | 4.9 |
Universal McCann (12/04) | 3.6 | 7.4 | 6.4 |
ZenithOptimedia (12/04) | 1.7 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
Jack Myers (12/04) | 2.8 | 6.3 | 4.8 |
Interdeco/Ad Barometer (11/04) | 3.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 |
Carat (01/05) | _ | 5.8 | 4.5 |
Average | 3.1 | 6.5 | 4.7 |
Source: As above/compiled by MediaTel INSIGHT |