Merrill Lynch (ML) is raising its global online advertising growth forecast from 24.1% & 17.5% in 2007 and 2008 respectively, to 25.5% and 18.8%.
ML said that based on input from its counterparts in Europe, Japan, China, Brazil, and Australia, its bottom-up build-up of international online advertising growth by major country suggests that online advertising grew 39% internationally in 2006, compared with its estimate of 35%.
ML is now forecasting growth of 29% and 23% in 2007 and 2008 respectively, compared to its previous estimates of 25% and 20%.
Merrill Lynch Estimates Of International Online Growth By Country | |||||||
2003A | 2004A | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | Merrill Lynch Analyst | |
Australia | 41.3% | 64.4% | 59.8% | 61.5% | 35.0% | 17.5% | Brett Hucker |
Brazil | 10.0% | 15.0% | 19.1% | 40.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | Michael Kopelman |
Canada | 34.7% | 53.6% | 54.4% | 42.5% | 30.0% | 25.1% | Zenith Optimedia |
China | 110.2% | 71.8% | 76.8% | 45.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | Simon Cheung |
France | 32.3% | 36.6% | 35.2% | 35.1% | 35.0% | 25.0% | Toby Reeks |
Germany | 8.4% | 10.2% | 19.9% | 21.0% | 23.0% | 21.1% | Toby Reeks |
Italy | 4.0% | 7.8% | 16.2% | 48.0% | 43.6% | 48.5% | Toby Reeks |
Japan | 40.0% | 53.3% | 54.8% | 29.3% | 20.0% | 15.0% | Yoshiyuki Kinoshita |
South Africa | 9.4% | 126.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 20.7% | Zenith optimedia |
South Korea | 45.9% | 45.4% | 68.8% | 34.4% | 28.6% | 24.2% | John Kim |
Spain | 4.2% | 25.3% | 28.7% | 30.0% | 35.0% | 40.0% | Toby Reeks |
Sweden | 6.8% | 16.3% | 28.5% | 31.4% | 22.5% | 18.7% | Zenith Optimedia |
United Kingdom | NM | 102.2% | 65.6% | 46.4% | 31.3% | 22.9% | Toby Reeks |
Total International | 66.7% | 55.0% | 53.7% | 38.6% | 28.6% | 22.5% | |
Source: Merrill Lynch Equity Research, Zenith Optimedia |
New figures from the Internet Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers show that UK internet advertising expenditure grew 41% in 2006, breaking the £2 billion for the first time (see UK Internet Advertising Spend Grows 41%).
Meanwhile, a recent report from eMarketer said that US marketers will continue to shift their spending into online advertising in 2007 (see US Marketers Will Continue To Move Online).