A new forecast from JupiterResearch claims that 70% of US homes – some 86 million households – will have broadband internet access by 2012.
The report,
US Broadband Forecast, 2007 to 2012: LECs Maintain Advantage over Cable Operators in Quest for New Subscribers, JupiterResearch finds that wider availability of high-speed service will prompt nearly 36 million new broadband subscribers over the next five years.
Doug Williams, analyst at JupiterResearch, said: “Price reductions are responsible for driving take-rates for DSL services offered by the incumbent local exchange carriers, while higher broadband transmission rates and attractive bundles are driving consumer adoption of cable modem service.
“As broadband becomes more attractive to consumers from an economic perspective, current dial-up users will be more likely to migrate to broadband service, and consumers who are new to the online population will never take dial-up service in the first place.”
JupiterResearch forecasts the number of dial-up internet households – currently about 33 million – will drop by over two-thirds by 2012, but that the market for dial-up service will not disappear completely. However, it adds that as web content increasingly incorporates high-bandwidth applications such as video, the value of dial-up access will become increasingly marginalised.
David Schatsky, president of JupiterResearch, said: “Despite moderating growth for broadband services, significant market opportunities for broadband service providers still exist.
“Cable operators and local exchange carriers will remain the key market participants, while alternative broadband service providers will continue to struggle to integrate into the mass market.”
A recent report from Media-Screen says that US broadband users are spending 48% (approximately one hour and 40 minutes) of their spare time online in a typical weekday (see US Broadband Users Spend Almost 50% Of Spare Time Online).
In April, eMarketer reported there were approximately 251 million broadband households worldwide at the end of 2006 (see 251 Million Broadband Households Worldwide).
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