The latest UK economic estimate from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) suggests that the growth rate in the third quarter of the year was 0.7%, slightly slower than the second quarter figure of 0.8%.
A study last month by NIESR as part of the Euroframe Group pointed to a growth rate of 2.2% next year, but this may be revised in its quarterly forecast to be produced at the end of October.
NIESR said that whilst it has expressed the view that the last interest rate increase was unnecessary, the Bank of England is likely to wait for clearer evidence of a slowing economy before reversing it.
Its track record in producing early estimates of GDP suggests that its projection for the most recent three-month period has a standard error of 0.14% point when compared to the first estimate produced by the Office for National Statistics.
The latest report from EUROFRAME – European Forecasting Network revealed that the economic upturn in the Euro area lost some momentum in the first half of 2007.
Quarterly real GDP growth in the Euro Area slowed to 0.3% in the second quarter of 2007, down from a stronger than expected 0.5% in the first quarter (see European Economic Upturn Loses Some Momentum).
A report from OPera Media in August said that the global economy remains on track for continued strong expansion in 2007 and 2008, with the UK economy expected to continue growing on, or near, its 2.5% long run trend in 2007 and 2008 (see Global Economy Remains On Track For Continued Expansion).
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