At the end of 2008, there will be four billion global mobile subscriptions, according to the latest forecasts from Informa Telecoms & Media.
Assuming that the world’s four billionth mobile subscription comes during the fourth quarter of 2008, it will have taken just five full quarters for the latest billion net additions, said Informa.
The engine for this rapid growth has been the tremendous consumer demand seen in emerging markets, such as China and India, where in each of these countries there have been over 50 million new mobile subscriptions in the last six months alone, as well as significant growth in markets such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and Brazil.
The rise of global mobile subscription numbers is, however, set to slow, with Informa’s forecast suggesting the five billionth subscription will be signed during 4Q 2011, with worldwide penetration reaching in excess of 70% by this time. Only in Africa will penetration at the end of 2011 still be below 50%.
Nick Jotischky, Informa Principal Analyst, said: “It is clear that the mobile industry will see a slowdown in growth – it is simply untenable for the extraordinary growth witnessed over the last 18 months to continue.
“Even taking the fastest growing regions of Asia Pacific and Africa into account, where we will see well over 20% year-on-year growth in subscription numbers this year, our forecasts suggest that this growth rate will slow to below 10% in 2010.”
Facing the reality of this slowdown in growth, some of the world’s largest mobile operators are beginning to accelerate collision of broadband internet and mobility, said Informa.
“Mobile broadband services, and in particular the evolution of HSPA, have reinvented the business case for 3G technologies and as a result mobile Internet services are helping to provide operators with new business streams, particularly within higher-income groups,” said Jotischky.
Data released by Bango in July revealed that mobile web usage is not only gaining traction in the United States but soon will surpass the UK (see US Mobile Web Usage To Overtake UK).
The top five countries accessing the mobile web via Bango in July 2008 were the UK at 19.35%, the US at 18.88%, India at 10.82%, South Africa at 8.82% and Indonesia at 4.08%.
Meanwhile, chip maker Intel recently forecast that there will be 1.2 billion mobile internet devices by 2012 (see 1.2bn Mobile Internet Devices By 2012).
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