UK ad spend to fall nearly 6% in 2009
Total UK advertising spend is set to fall by nearly 6% year on year in 2009, the worst of any developed country, according to a new GroupM forecast.
UK national newspaper advertising is forecast to be down 12% year on year in 2009, regional titles down 13%, and the business-to-business magazine sector down 14%.
TV advertising is predicted to fall 6% year on year, in line with the overall downturn in total ad revenue next year, while radio ads will be down 8% and consumer magazines down 8.5%.
A recent forecast from ZenithOptimedia said that UK TV ad spend would fall by 6% this year and 3% in 2009.
| GroupM UK Ad Spend Forecast | |||||
| £m, net | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008f | 2009f |
| TV | 3,569 | 3,423 | 3,500 | 3,298 | 3,100 |
| Radio | 443 | 408 | 422 | 384 | 353 |
| National newspapers | 1,626 | 1,626 | 1,639 | 1,504 | 1,330 |
| Regional newspapers | 2,545 | 2,365 | 2,335 | 1,888 | 1,640 |
| Consumer magazines | 703 | 690 | 672 | 621 | 568 |
| B2B magazines | 904 | 864 | 823 | 757 | 651 |
| Outdoor | 729 | 759 | 797 | 750 | 735 |
| Cinema (includes production) | 160 | 160 | 176 | 181 | 181 |
| Internet | 1,149 | 1,946 | 2,646 | 3,231 | 3,350 |
| Total | 11,827 | 12,241 | 13,010 | 12,615 | 11,908 |
| GroupM UK Ad Spend Forecast, YoY % change | |||||
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008f | 2009f | |
| TV | 3.2% | -4.1% | 2.2% | -5.8% | -6.0% |
| Radio | -4.3% | -7.8% | 3.4% | -9.0% | -8.0% |
| National newspapers | -3.1% | 0.0% | 0.8% | -8.2% | -11.6% |
| Regional newspapers | -4.4% | -7.1% | -1.3% | -19.1% | -13.2% |
| Consumer magazines | 1.0% | -1.8% | -2.6% | -7.6% | -8.5% |
| B2B magazines | -1.7% | -4.4% | -4.7% | -8.0% | -14.0% |
| Outdoor | 7.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | -5.8% | -2.0% |
| Cinema (includes production) | -2.1% | 0.0% | 10.1% | 3.0% | -0.1% |
| Internet | 63.8% | 69.4% | 36.0% | 22.1% | 3.7% |
| Total | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.3% | -3.0% | -5.6% |
GroupM, WPP’s media buying subsidiary, has downgraded its 2008 total UK ad spend forecast from growth of 4%, reported in May, to a decline of 3%.
It has also revised down its forecast of 3% growth in total UK ad spend in 2009 to a fall of 5.6%.
Traditional media, not including figures for internet ad spend, is predicted to be down 10% year on year in 2008 and 9% in 2009.
The growth rate for internet ad spending in 2009 has been revised down as well, from 20% to just 4%.
However, public relations will see 2% growth in revenue and market research will see a 1.8% rise.
GroupM said that it now expects zero growth in global ad spend in 2009, down from its earlier forecast of 5% growth year on year.
A report by Enders Analysis published in November predicted that total UK ad spend would fall by 12% in 2009, before returning to growth of 9.3% in 2010 (see UK ad spend to fall by 12% in 2009).
GroupM: www.groupm.com