UK adspend rises 11% in Q2, driven by retail media, cinema and social media
UK advertising investment rose 11.0% year-on-year to £12.3bn in Q2 2026, according to the latest figures from the Advertising Association (AA) and WARC’s Expenditure Report.
The report also forecasts that UK advertising investment will reach a record £14.0bn in Q4, up 8.2% year-on-year, as brands increase spending during the festive period.
Retail media led growth in Q2, rising 31.2% year-on-year and accounting for 8.4% of total advertising investment as the channel continued to open up more touchpoints along the consumer journey.
Cinema also posted strong growth, rising 24.5% year-on-year, supported by major releases including The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Toy Story 5.
Social media investment increased 22.2%, while out-of-home (OOH) and addressable TV each grew by 12.7%. Search rose 9.3%, followed by direct mail (+4.5%), online classified (+4.4%), digital radio (+3.2%) and TV (+2.6%).
Elsewhere, other online display – encompassing formats such as audio, gaming, video outstream, and native advertising – fell 20.7%, while published media declined 4.1%, including a 10.3% fall in regional newsbrands. Radio investment dropped 4.4%, although its online segment grew 3.2%.
Suzy Young, head of media data at WARC, said Q2 advertising investment remained strong despite geopolitical headwinds and weak consumer confidence linked to the Middle East conflict.
“Growth was boosted by the FIFA World Cup, but increasingly reflects AI investment, as platforms enhance targeting while both new AI-native companies and established tech firms compete for customers – a dynamic that improves efficiency while generating new demand, helping offset weaker sentiment,” she said.
Young added that the AI-driven boost was particularly pronounced in the UK, given the maturity of its digital advertising market.
The festive season
The AA/WARC report forecasts that advertising investment will reach £14.0bn in Q4, a £1.06bn increase on the same period last year.
| Medium | Q2 2026 | Q4 2026 | FY 2026 | FY 2026 change vs July forecast | FY 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cinema | +24.5% | +8.6% | +6.9% | +4.8pp | +3.4% |
| Direct mail | +4.5% | +1.8% | +4.1% | +1.2pp | +0.2% |
| Online classified | +4.4% | +1.6% | +3.2% | +4.1pp | +1.1% |
| Other online display* | -20.7% | -25.4% | -17.7% | +2.0pp | -26.0% |
| Out of home | +12.7% | +7.5% | +10.8% | +3.1pp | +3.5% |
| of which digital | +14.6% | +9.5% | +12.9% | +3.8pp | +4.3% |
| Published media | -4.1% | -3.5% | -4.2% | -1.2pp | -0.6% |
| Magazine brands | -3.4% | -5.2% | -4.6% | -1.4pp | -0.4% |
| of which online | +1.3% | -3.8% | -0.3% | -0.6pp | +1.6% |
| National news brands | -0.7% | -2.1% | -2.1% | -0.5pp | -1.5% |
| of which online | +0.4% | -0.4% | -0.2% | -1.0pp | +0.8% |
| Regional news brands | -10.3% | -4.4% | -7.3% | -2.5pp | +0.8% |
| of which online | -13.2% | -4.6% | -8.7% | -4.3pp | +3.2% |
| Radio | -4.4% | -1.3% | -0.6% | -3.9pp | -0.4% |
| of which online | +3.2% | +4.7% | +9.1% | -3.5pp | +4.2% |
| Retail media | +31.2% | +16.2% | +23.0% | +7.2pp | +13.0% |
| Search | +9.3% | +7.8% | +9.1% | +0.6pp | +6.6% |
| Social media | +22.2% | +18.5% | +20.7% | +4.2pp | +13.3% |
| TV | +2.6% | +1.6% | +0.9% | -2.8pp | +1.7% |
| of which addressable | +12.7% | +15.1% | +14.7% | +1.2pp | +10.9% |
| All media total | +11.0% | +8.2% | +9.9% | +1.8pp | +6.5% |
Source: AA/WARC Expenditure Report, October 2026
Social media is expected to grow 18.5%, followed by retail media (+16.2%) and addressable TV (+15.1%). Cinema investment is forecast to rise 8.6%, while search is expected to grow 7.8%.
Increased high-street footfall during Q4 is expected to benefit OOH, which is forecast to grow 7.5%, with digital OOH up 9.5%.
Further growth is anticipated for digital radio (+4.7%), direct mail (+1.8%), total TV (+1.6%) and online classified (+1.6%). Other online display is forecast to decline by 25.4% over the quarter.
Stephen Woodford, CEO of the Advertising Association, said the forecast increase reflected “the vital role advertising plays across all channels and media formats in supporting business growth during the golden quarter and beyond”.
Full-year 2026 and 2027 forecasts
UK advertising investment is forecast to grow 9.9% in 2026 to reach £51.3bn, an upward revision of 1.8 percentage points from the July forecast. Growth is expected to moderate in 2027, when investment is projected to rise 6.5% to £54.7bn.
Retail media is forecast to grow 23.0% in 2026, followed by social media (+20.7%) and addressable TV (+14.7%). Further gains are expected across OOH (+10.8%), search (+9.1%), digital radio (+9.1%), cinema (+6.9%), direct mail (+4.1%), online classified (+3.2%) and total TV (+0.9%).
By contrast, published media is forecast to decline 4.2% in 2026, while other online display is expected to fall 17.7%.
Ant Hopper, co-founder of independent agency The Ninety-Niners, said the breadth of growth was particularly notable.
“Unsurprisingly, retail media and social continue to surge, but brand building channels such as addressable TV, cinema and OOH are also performing strongly,” he said.
In 2027, social media (+13.3%), retail media (+13.0%) and addressable TV (+10.9%) are expected to lead growth. Search is forecast to rise 6.6%, digital radio 4.2%, digital OOH 4.3%, TV 1.7% and online classifieds 1.1%.