The new rhythms of retail: Thinking beyond the Golden Quarter
Opinion
The way people shop has stretched and shifted. H2 is a series of distinct retail rhythms, each with its own audiences, behaviours and opportunities that brands must understand.
If you are planning the second half of the year like it is still a single sprint to 25 December, you are working to an old map.
The way people shop has stretched and shifted. There are more moments that matter, more audiences moving at different speeds and more chances to earn attention beyond the usual peaks.
We see three big shifts:
• Mirroring those mince pies in the supermarkets, spending starts earlier each year and lasts longer. In the UK, 60% now begin holiday shopping before November. This flattens the traditional spike and rewards brands that build momentum in Q3.
• Not everyone is swept up in festive advertising. Around 30% of consumers actively disengage with it and that creates new opportunities.
• Store and screen are blending. The biggest footfall peaks in the Golden Half precede the highest volume of online sales — people still want to touch, feel and try things on. High-street footfall was up 4.1% year on year in May and late-stage decisions are often made in person.
The implication is simple. H2 is not one story. It is a series of distinct retail rhythms, each with its own audiences, behaviours and opportunities. The brands that do well map those rhythms, then choose the gaps they can credibly own.
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Where the white space is
A single festive story will not reach everyone. A third of people either do not celebrate, celebrate differently or would rather skip the ads. Turning up the volume is not the answer.
Widen the lens. Are there opportunities to show up and demonstrate value where your competitors aren’t? There’s plenty of white space to find competitive advantage in.
Younger audiences and parents pile into Halloween. Communities celebrate cultural moments — with at least 1.6m people in the UK celebrating Diwali alone.
Interest groups follow their own calendars, from gaming launches to sport. These are potentially opportunities to be present where competitors are quiet and build mental availability before the noise begins.
November is changing shape too. Black Friday will remain the biggest single moment, but spend is spreading across a longer period. Consumer clamour for deals and savvy brands have created a second peak of activity the week before Black Friday: Fake Friday.
Treat November as a month to manage, not a weekend to survive.
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Twixmas: Leftovers and life admin
The days between Christmas and New Year (known as Twixmas) are often treated as the cooling-off period.
In reality, behaviour flips. The pace slows, people finally have some headspace and media attention ticks up. Channels such as TV, social and OOH can work harder because audiences are more present.
Focus moves from gifting to personal priorities. Think of the life admin parked in December: eye tests, MOTs, health check-ups, returns and exchanges, setting up new tech, booking travel for the year ahead, switching broadband or energy tariffs, joining a gym… the list goes on.
All before you get into January and realise just how skint you are.
So don’t overlook Twixmas like it’s the last dry piece of turkey; set objectives that are different to those in December. Shift the message from sentiment to usefulness. Make it easy to redeem gift cards, exchange sizes, book services and try new categories. Bring store information to the foreground.
Think eye test reminders, next available appointments, clear returns flows, short how-to videos and shoppable content that answers the real questions people have that week. Measure new-to-brand, cross-sell and repeat-purchase performances, not just clearance.
Treat it as the start of next year’s growth, not the tail end of this year’s plan.
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Future of retail discovery
Discovery is also changing. People are asking assistants and marketplaces full questions, not typing short keywords. Think “Which air fryer for a family of four under £100 in stock near me?” rather than “air fryer deals”.
If your pages are slow, vague or inconsistent, you will not be picked. Make the answer obvious. Clear product information, live availability, delivery and returns upfront, reviews that help and structured data that systems can read.
Not easy, but simple
There are clear changes in consumer and brand behaviour here, but none of this needs fireworks.
It rewards the basics done well and it’s reassuring to know that, in a changing world, some things remain the same. You can still go a long way by understanding audience behaviours, reaching them at the right moments and creating joined-up, valuable customer experiences.
Find the white space you can own. Start early enough for ad stock to work in your favour. Keep plans agile because November rarely behaves. And treat Twixmas and January as moments worth designing for, not an afterthought.
Matt Mint is executive director at MG OMD