Demand for greater bandwidth speeds to grow over next decade

The average household will require bandwidth of 19 Mbps by 2023 with the top 1% of high usage households demanding 35-39 Mbps, according to a new report from BSG.

The report outlines a new way for measuring and forecasting demand doe bandwidth in UK homes by combining usage profiles of various applications with usage profiles on individuals.

The forecast speeds for 2023 are lower than those previously cited regarding future capacity needs. BSG notes that there are a few reasons for this, including the decrease of the bit rate for a given quality video as compression techniques improve, and that traffic volume forecasts are different to what might be expected for a bit rate.

“Despite global interest in whether broadband infrastructure is currently meeting demand and will continue to do so, there is a lack of evidence and methodology available to inform this critical question,” said Pamela Learmonth, CEO of the BSG.

“This was our key motivation for commissioning new research in this area and this study presents a technology-neutral approach to forecasting demand, rooted in the applications consumers want to access.”

The report also highlights a number of sensitivities to the model results which could change anticipated requirements, including changing user expectations for factors such as download speeds.

The news follows Netflix’s announcement that it is testing 4K video streams, set to be available for customers next year.

However, analysts have voiced concerns over the requirements of the ultra-high definition service, which is expected to require speeds of around 100 Mbs – fivefold the speed that the average household is expected to demand in 2023.