Sarah Pearce – MediaTel NewsLine Global digital television penetration is predicted to reach 144 million homes by the end of 2005, with this figure set to more than double by the end of the decade, to 370 million, according to MediaTel INSIGHT’s latest Digital TV Report.
Earlier this week, at MediaTel INSIGHT’s Future of Digital TV Seminar in conjunction with MediaGuardian, it was revealed that the most popular means of accessing digital TV was via satellite, although cable was shown to be on the rise holding an estimated 21% share of the market by 2010.
However, although digital TV is forecast to enjoy a strong performance over the coming years, the estimates show that 65% of homes will still rely on analogue technology by 2010, indicating that there is still potential growth within the digital spectrum beyond this decade.
In the US, digital TV is set to reach 60% penetration by 2007, with estimates from JupiterResearch suggesting that digital cable will dominate the market, up to 37 million homes, from 26 million in 2004. Digital satellite penetration is forecast to grow to 29 million, up from 24 million at the end of 2004.
However, despite the fact that digital TV penetration is likely to have reached around 91% by 2010, commentators still believe that the US government is unlikely to sanction analogue switch-off.
Europe is predicted to have overtaken the US by 2006 as the largest TV digital market, with 89 million homes estimated to be digital by 2008. This figure is expected to rise to 112 million by the end of the decade.
Forecasters are currently anticipating that, by 2010, penetration will hit 82% in the UK, ahead of Germany with 56% and France at 54%.
According to analysts Merrill Lynch, the UK is expected to enjoy digital TV penetration of 89% by 2008, with Ofcom stating that currently the UK leads the world, with almost 60% of households having access to digital TV.
Last month, the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising revealed a dramatic uptake of the technology over the last quarter of 2004, with over half of all UK homes adopting the new media.
According to MediaTel INSIGHT, the clear market leader is BSkyB, reaching more than 7 million households by the end of 2004, however Freeview is revealed to have driven recent market growth, with 4.5 million households by the end of last year, a 17% increase quarter on quarter.
The report is available to buy at www.mediatelinsight.co.uk/reports
MediaTel INSIGHT: 0207 439 7575 www.mediatelinsight.co.uk
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