GroupM UK media and marketing forecasts – Winter 2012

UK advertising is set to grow between 3% and 4% this year and next, roughly in line with nominal GDP, says GroupM in its winter 2012 report into UK media and marketing forecasts.

The media powerhouse also states that the internal dynamics of UK media investment remain a “bigger story than growth,” and that since 2008, share redistribution between the media has been ten times larger than underlying growth.

TV consensus for 2013 is described as optimistic, forecasting 2% growth, while print outlook has deteriorated with national newspapers down -8.6% in 2013 (compared with -7.7 this year), regional down -10.4% (-11.6% in 2012) and consumer magazines down -8% (-7% 2012).

Digital advertising growth remains strong, finding, the report states, new support from “multiple innovations: consumer devices, better data, better platform technology and rising advertiser confidence in the newer reaches of the medium, helped by the heavy London clustering of the sector.”

Outdoor media, after a strong year – helped by the Olympics – will go from +8% in 2012 to -2% next year. GroupM estimate the Olympics brought in an incremental £50 million gross from various sponsors, supplying a one-off 5% uplift to 2012 billings.

Meanwhile, Cinema sees a drop from +10% in 2012 to +3% next year. The drop is blamed on a lack of blockbusters in 2013 after this year’s Skyfall and Batman doing extremely well at the box office.

The internet next year remains strong, with +12% growth forecast (+15% 2012).

The full report, This Year, Next Year: UK media and marketing Forecasts is available from GroupM.