Is Q4 still the most important period for planners?
Are you bored of Christmas ads yet?
Q4 — or, in slightly sexier parlance, the “golden quarter” — is traditionally a crucial period for the media and advertising industry.
With some of the UK’s biggest advertisers being retailers, the final three months of the year are extremely important from a sales perspective, encompassing the Christmas period and, increasingly, Black Friday promotions.
But media planning has transformed in recent decades. There’s the long-discussed fragmentation of media, meaning there are more channels to plan for than ever, while booking deadlines have also shifted to make planning more spontaneous.
So is media planning in Q4 really just like any other period now? And how has the work of planners changed? The Media Leader asked some of the UK’s top strategic minds to share their thoughts.
Claire Kimber, managing partner, strategy and innovation, Goodstuff Communications
“I think it very much depends on the brand. Christmas is, of course, huge for retailers, but the same isn’t true for every brand or category.
“What is true is that Christmas is a time for consistency. As people, we all unpack our traditions and familiar little poinsettia peccadilloes. It’s a time for celebrating the rituals of the season. And the same should be true of how brands unwrap themselves in consumer spaces at this time of year.
“Kantar probably illustrates this best in its analysis of the performance of Christmas telly ads. Put simply, those brands that have the confidence to reuse thematics, characters and devices win. Significantly.
“We listen to the same songs, watch the same films (yes, Die Hard is a Christmas film), eat the same food and probably see the same people… advertising doesn’t need to be any different.
“Now, put Last Christmas on a repeat and let rip on the mince pies.”
Richard Kirk, chief strategy officer, EssenceMediacom UK
“Office for National Statistics retail data since 1996 shows December consistently delivers 1.3x sales volume versus other months. So, yes, Q4 remains crucial for advertisers and therefore it’s crucial for planners.
“But if it’s important, and competition is fierce, are we doing enough to help brands break through?
“Since the early 2010s, brands have mostly followed the John Lewis Q4 playbook: big campaign, emotional ad, integration across media.
“But look at search volume for major brand keywords plus ‘Christmas ad’ or, indeed, just ‘ad’ — there’s a clear decline in consumer interest since 2016. Two-thirds of people are bored with Christmas campaigns, making Q4 lots harder.
“I think the industry hullabaloo around ‘winning Christmas’ is blinding us to this. Creative testing reinforces this — respondents like seeing ‘Christmassy’ stuff.
“Reinventing the Q4 playbook and getting the public to fall back in love with Christmas ads is potentially the biggest breakthrough opportunity in UK advertising today.”
Lin-Sze Teh, head of planning, Starcom UK
“Q4 remains the ‘make or break’ quarter for most businesses and therefore a priority period for planners. Winning big or missing year-end targets has become an even more complex task.
“For me, there are three most important factors. First, ensuring businesses maximise their revenue potential. In many cases, this means most brands in a portfolio will be active at the same time, requiring careful planning around clash management and the implementing of complex buying strategies.
“Second, navigating media fragmentation and walled gardens. Lastly, Black Friday should also be considered. Promotions now last between two to four weeks. This has created a dramatic shift in consumer spending behaviours.
“Media planners must navigate this complex landscape as well as think about shifting consumer behaviours. There’s the threat of a back-handed slap — the dreaded ‘out of stock’ issue in the rapidly expanding retail media space.
“The task increases in complexity with each year and, as planners, we must continue to learn — and learn fast.”
Steve Taylor, UK head of strategy, Mediahub
“Summer behind us, the kids back at school, Chris Rea sets off home, the year’s best telly — Bake Off, Strictly and a selection box of lavish Crimbo campaigns. And in planning land, ‘busy’ goes off the scale. Q4 is ‘peak planning’.
“But it’s not down to campaign delivery. Yes, there’s more digital everything everywhere and a softening of booking deadlines, making last-minute campaigns easier for the planning elves to deliver. But, in planning, we all know Christmas is in July.
“Nowadays, Q4 is all about next-year planning. And with UK adspend set to smash the £40bn barrier for the first time, there’s more of it to plan than ever.
“Meanwhile, budgets are under ever tighter scrutiny, so we are planning in more detail, with more options, and more rigour and data than ever before. And it’s all got to be signed off by the board before Santa’s slid down a chimney.
“But after Q4’s peak planning, all your hard-grafting planner wants for Christmas is a jolly good rest.”
Emily Fairhead-Keen, head of strategy, Havas Media UK
“Arguably it is, because aside from the obvious multitude of category pressures at this time of year which beat on, there is a deep-rooted sense of an ‘ending’ ingrained in our working culture, unlike any other time of the year. A clear end to the year when our industry pauses — albeit momentarily — and psychologically starts again, adding pressure and gravity to the period.
“As humans, we want to get stuff done, finish, deliver on target and feel satisfied. This, in human ways, makes it important.
“In many other ways, it’s just another important time of the year in a sea of manufactured, industry-obsessed ‘moments’ we’ve invented. From time-based moments across the days and weeks to cultural moments to seasonal moments and life moments, as planners we anchor ourselves in a web of patterns and rituals.
“It’s also the period where we tend to look back/look forward and overly navel-gaze, with January providing us a fresh start to crack it all, meaning we place internal pressures on ourselves.”