Loss-making newspapers drive different strategies

Paper Boy – the irreverent insider

So what effect has The Guardian‘s 20% cover price rise had on its sale? Well, it is hard to tell from the audited data in the public domain. September’s ABC tells a pretty gloomy story.

It always was going to be bleak, despite the cover price rise, with The Guardian down 3.6% month on month and 16.4% on the corresponding month last year. What we can’t tell for the moment is whether the price rise accelerated the rate of decline, which includes the cesation of distributing foreign copies.

Usually market leaders drive price increases and competitors are happy to follow and bank the extra money on to the bottom line. However, The Times, Daily Telegraph and Independent have not followed suit. Perhaps there is a waiting brief to see how price sensitive the now two coin threshold of £1.20 is.

A few weeks ago I mooted that now GMG has a strategic intent of a digital-only publishing future they were hurtling towards that end state. However, quite rightly, Alan Rusbridger, with the launch of The Guardian‘s new iPad edition, states that there will never be a final incarnation of The Guardian.

It will evolve, like all newspapers will, with no final state… for the strong brands able to survive with new revenue streams and a different business model this will be the case. As long as the Scott Trust can continue to fund The Guardian from other business interests they might be OK.  My prediction for the last Guardian to roll-off the Berliner presses is 2026.

The Guardian’s ABC figure has been stripped of the expensive prop of bulk copies and the sales of printed copies internationally. The Independent have announced its own culling of foreign copies and that it will charge a subscription rate for online access from browsers attributable outside the UK. Obviously, there are work-arounds to avoid the charge if anyone can be bothered, but nobody is expecting an avalanche of new money.

No media buyer was fooled by the foreign copy figure that is part of most newspapers overall ABC figure. Most of their booked campaigns were targeted at UK audiences and the fact that the foreign copy figure was not a sales figure that could be a proxy to a potential audience figure – it was literally the number of copies each publisher ordered to be printed.

But asThe Independent’s sales figure slips under its little sister i, not even a redesign is going to change much. As part of my collection of newspapers, I have a first copy of The Independent from 1986. 25 years later I am offering it for sale for £10 (competitively matching eBay prices) – a ten times multiple Lebedev paid for the whole company. It won’t be long until the i is the lead marketed product, backed up for sometime by the newsroom that delivers both products.

I must admit I might have been a tad unfair to the i when I wrote about it a few months ago. But having trialled the title to comment on it, I am increasingly attracted to it. It is enough to read on a short journey, challenges more than the now-dull Metro and is available in suburbia where I can’t get hold of City AM (which is an increasing read in these times of the escalating sovereign debt crisis).

Stefano Hatfield is doing a great job as editor of i. In fact, I am going to send him an idea I have for a new column (sports related) that I also think I can get a sponsor for. Watch this space… I’ll let you know how I get on (only if it leads somewhere of course!).