Outlook Improves For ITV Advertising
ITV advertising revenues for July and August are continuing to look strong, after a boost in spending received by the Network during the World Cup last month (see Forecasts). With the recovery holding out for the foreseeable future, analysts at Merrill Lynch are upgrading their outlook for Carlton Communications and Granada.
The broker is now forecasting that ITV revenue will fall by just 1.6% in 2002, returning to 4.0% positive growth in 2003. The remainder of the year is not expected to show any further year on year declines on a month by month basis.
This contrasts with predictions from Lehman Brothers, compiled in May and revised in June, which show a 6.0% decline for the full year 2002. In 2003, Lehman also expects a 4.0% growth.
| ITV Advertising Estimates | |||
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | |
| Jan | -9.5 | -16.0 | – |
| Feb | -5.8 | -16.8 | – |
| Mar | -8.3 | -7.3 | – |
| Apr | -18.8 | -11.6 | – |
| May | -20.2 | 9.3 | – |
| Jun | -24.1 | 8.5 | – |
| Jul | -14.7 | 5.0 | – |
| Aug | -7.1 | 3.0 | – |
| Sep | -18.0 | 0.5 | – |
| Oct | -12.1 | 4.8 | – |
| Nov | -12.9 | 3.0 | – |
| Dec | -3.1 | 1.5 | – |
| TOTAL | -13.3 | -1.6 | 4.0 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, July 2002 | |||
| UK ITV Advertising Forecasts (£m) | |||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Full Year | |
| 1999 | 495.6 | 437.4 | 452.8 | 446.9 | 1,832.7 |
| YoY % Change | 5.2 | 12.3 | -4.7 | 11.5 | 5.5 |
| 2000 | 525.3 | 482.7 | 534.5 | 439.1 | 1,981.6 |
| YoY % Change | 6.0 | 10.4 | 18.0 | -1.7 | 8.1 |
| 2001 | 509.0 | 449.5 | 423.3 | 370.0 | 1,751.8 |
| YoY % Change | -3.1 | -6.9 | -20.8 | -15.7 | -11.6 |
| 2002 | 449.1 | 385.1 | 427.5 | 384.8 | 1,646.5 |
| YoY % Change | -11.8 | -14.3 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -6.0 |
| 2003 | 467.1 | 400.5 | 444.6 | 400.2 | 1,712.4 |
| YoY % Change | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2002 (revised) | |||||