Sheila Byfield/Doreen Dignan – ‘Futura.Com – What Answers Does It Hold?’

Sheila Byfield/Doreen Dignan, The Network

In all areas of life, there is evidence of change. 29% of homes are now single occupancy, a proportion which is set to increase to 36% by the year 2016. The divorce rate has doubled over the past twenty years and now every other wedding ends in divorce. Women make up more than 50% of the work-force and many of the household duties are shared.

People have much more independence than ever before. We don’t ‘need’ each other. Communities are ones of common interest or proximity, rather than necessity. We are not growing vegetables to exchange for milk from someone’s cow down the road. We know more about ‘neighbours’ with Australian accents than we do about the people who live next door. (We’ve probably all heard the statistic that two-thirds of people wouldn’t have chosen their current residence if they knew their neighbours)

The likeablility of one’s neighbourhood is strongly influenced by the region where one lives. According to futura.com, living in greater London may not be all that it is cracked up to be.

Overcrowding and crime are modern day worries that are particularly relevant to city dwellers. There are more people, more crimes, and greater levels of fear, particularly in inner cities. It’s no wonder people don’t trust each other any more. According to futura.com, older and more downmarket sectors of the population feel this sentiment most strongly.

All in all, society across age, class and region are feeling increasingly harried and pulled in a multitude of directions. Time has become an increasingly valuable commodity. According to futura.com, almost half of adults wish they could spend less time on basic chores and shopping. This figure increases by over 50% when one looks at upmarket parents.

It is advancements in technology which have brought on the breakneck speed of modern change. The telephone and the television alone in the very recent past, have contributed massively to social change. The technological successes in the future will undoubtedly be those which will provide solutions to modern day problems.

futura.com was designed to explain this current, rapidly increasing change and to provide a detailed understanding of the impact of media, communications and technology on people’s behaviour and opinions and insight into managing future marketing and communications strategies.

We read and hear much about technological developments, but in effect what we are being subjected to is a journalist’s perspective when it is real people who will dictate the speed and scale of change. futura.com provides a detailed portrait of the British public, which media and technology they own and use, their social behaviour and their opinions all of which are being tracked through to the end of this century, across the millennium and into the next. From a hard factual point of view, the research provides a detailed database of the technology people have and how they use it.

So we know for example that more homes now have two televisions than one – we also know where they are located and how they are received and also whether they used to have cable or satellite and have discontinued and the reasons why. We know that 62% have Teletext, 20% have Nicam but that only 6% have widescreen. Broad viewing behaviour is measured both in and outside the home. While much of this information is available from BARB, the same level of detail is recorded for radio, cinema, magazine and newspaper readership.

futura.com also measures ownership of cameras, videos and audio equipment – both fixed and portable. 18% of people have a mobile phone – 42% of them are in the South East, 24% have answerphone and 4% have a home fax. 27% of people have a personal computer at home though only 18% use them – computer software ownership and purchase intentions are recorded. The main reasons for wanting a home pc are for education and games. The main reason for not getting one is not being able to see the need. All ownership data is brand specific.

futura.com tells us what people do for a living, how many work from home, whether they are religious, how they will vote, where they bank and what credit, charge and loyalty cards they posses. We know their driving, eating and drinking habits, whether they exercise, whether they smoke, their views on the future, society, technology, financial issues, shopping and about their trusts and beliefs. The list goes on and on but the above, hopefully, demonstrates that futura.com is a vast, comprehensive and flexible database which paints a detailed portrait of the British public – what it owns, how it spends its time and what it thinks.

Analysis of these data shows the existing levels of technological sophistication in British homes. Each home has been graded by its ownership of a variety of technologies. So for example, points were not added for having common place technologies such as a television or a telephone but the presence of additional technologies or features such as Nicam, widescreen TV, modem or home fax increased the household score. In total 16 technologies were included allowing a maximum score per household of thirty and a minimum of zero.

The above chart shows the modernity score for the population. 21% score zero, a further 21% score only one. At the other end there are 5% with a score between 10 and 13 and 4% with 14 or more. Beyond this there are very small numbers of homes who are extremely well advanced – technologically speaking.

This is a typical picture of early adoption – a few people having a lot and the majority having very little. It does suggest, though, that the hi-tech home of the future, about which we hear so much, has a long way to go before showing widespread signs of becoming a reality. There appears to be evolution rather than revolution as far as the home is concerned.

What Do People Think About Media, Technology And Related Issues?

As one would expect, opinions are as colourful and varied as the population itself. The next chart shows broad agreement with the statement that modern technology will have a positive effect on individual lives. Enthusiasm varies by age and class. There is a fundamental and important additional influence upon people’s answer to this question – experience. Experience has a powerful impact upon a consumer’s understanding and acceptance of new technologies. It seems so simple when you think about it. It is much easier to make informed judgements about something once you have tried it out yourself. This is particularly true with computers. Consumers who have had no exposure are far more daunted at the prospect than those who have had even a fleeting encounter.

The right hand bar of the above chart provides a prime example of the importance of the ‘experience’ phenomenon. Those who have ‘experienced’ the internet, which today most people would consider an example of modern technology, have a much more positive view about the effects of new technology on their lives.

There was time when the telephone was a new technology. Can you imagine what it would have been like to see this new-fangled contraption that would allow you to speak with someone who wasn’t within earshot? Mind boggling. Do you think anyone would have thought that everything from business deals to pledges of undying love would be transmitted over wires?

85% of people agree with the statement ‘I couldn’t imagine life without a telephone’

Source : futura.com

They certainly do now. The telephone has satisfied a need within society. Arguably, the existence of the need is at least somewhat dependant upon consumers knowing and understanding the power of the new.

Just when and how people move through the above continuum is being measured through futura.com covering a wide range of technologies. From what the collective population knows of new technologies at the moment, though few have experienced them, there are areas of greater and lesser interest. The items on the next list, with substantial levels of interest, are things which people can readily and easily understand and determine whether or not they would find it of interest

This following list, where there are much lower interest levels, are arguably more difficult for many people to comprehend the personal benefits.

If one is used to receiving and answering letters through the post, it is probably difficult to envisage the ease with which correspondence could be stored and saved electronically and how simple it would be to reply instantly without having to look up addresses. When all these benefits are experienced and understood, there still may be large numbers who do not see the benefits and do not change behaviour. However, there are many others who would migrate some of their communications to the electronic media.

Individuals may have varying opinions on what interests them on the new technology front but, as the above chart demonstrates, the collective populous reflects more uniform sentiments about the role of government, British industry and education for children.

Customer Relationships And Loyalty Schemes

Another area of significant change is the relationship between consumers and suppliers. The burgeoning popularity of loyalty schemes makes it an area ripe for investigation. According tofutura.com, some 57% of households have a loyalty card of one kind or another some of which were focused upon during qualitative research. (Part of the research took place in Reading amongst people who were using the Safeway self-scanning trolley equipment)

There was an almost universal feeling that supermarkets had set up loyalty schemes simply to provide a better service to customers. There was no evidence of ‘savvy’ consumers who realised the potential benefits to the retailer of a good database.

The people in the groups who were involved in the Safeway trial, were very satisfied with the scheme. People just love scanning and handling their own purchases – less hassle, less time wasted, more control in their own hands. In fact, the only drawbacks to the scheme revolved around faulty equipment and worries about security – people have high expectations of new technology.

New Media Technologies

Time isn’t standing still in any area of life – more and more technological developments are on the horizon. There is one imminent development which has the potential to dramatically influence both social and media behaviour – digital television.

Digital television is attracting a great deal of attention – particularly in the media and predictions and speculation are rife on the speed of its development. The Henley Centre’s Media Futures study is predicting a 60% penetration by 2006 – there are similar projections elsewhere. These predictions assume that people will be prepared to shell out significant sums of money for new TV sets or for a set top box in order to access new services.

futura.com has revealed that people won’t adopt new products just because of technological sophistication no matter how advanced they are. New services must be compelling, easier to use and more comprehensive than current offerings if people are being asked to commit money. In other words it is benefits and not features which must be sold to the public – they simply don’t care how things work – it is what they deliver that counts. What can digital TV offer to make a 60% penetration become a reality and persuade people to pay? How are people reacting now to the digital TV proposition? futura.com asked reactions to the digital proposition based on a £200 outlay.

Better picture quality. When asked about this proposition, futura.com respondents gave an overall thumbs up with 49% showing an interest. The majority though were only quite interested, only 18% were very interested. One wonders whether, when push comes to shove and money is requested, better picture quality will be seductive enough on its own to persuade the majority of people to buy. Better picture quality is a feature, not a benefit, and it is benefits which will make people go digital.

Access to more channels. Because of the fantastic capabilities of digitised communications in squashing everything into infinitesimally small spaces, a seemingly unlimited number of channels could be on offer. There are big questions over first, what type of programming material is going to fill such a volume of time and secondly, whether people want so many viewing options.

The appeal of more programming has been comparatively slow in persuading people into new TV distribution services. The early surge in the penetration of satellite TV through sports channels is not surprising as this offers a genuine benefit – something which could not be accessed elsewhere. The offer of movies did not work quite so well – films are available through the cinema, video and terrestrial television. There has to be something compelling when people are being asked to spend money. The offer of more channels has not been compelling enough for the majority of people who have opted to remain with terrestrial only television. And now they have more of it in the shape of Channel 5 – free and without the need for, and the cost of, extra equipment.

In answer to this proposition 26% of people showed an interest of which 9% claimed to be very interested. Interestingly, there was as great an interest in having over 100 new CD quality radio music channels as there was in additional television channels.

Computer services through the television set. There is obvious appeal in many of these functions but in the context of the next ten years or so, computers and TV’s will probably remain as separate boxes, where they do develop they will most likely take the form of computers with TV capabilities rather than vica-verca and that task related activities such as shopping and banking will probably enjoy greater success through the computer than the television screen.

These views are driven by a number of factors. First the much talked about 10 inch versus 10 feet rule and what people want to do at these distances. Shopping and banking are tasks and may be better conducted via a computer screen. The television is associated primarily with passive entertainment and there does not seem to be any indication that this will change – certainly not in the immediate future.

When it comes to accessing the internet, futura.com panel members were not too keen – at least not yet. Only 19% expressed an interest – only 5% being very interested. This probably has a lot to do with the experience phenomenon referred to above. If the majority have never tried it, it’s not surprising that the majority claim not to want it.

These views are pragmatic rather than negative – it is early days yet. Digital technology is exciting and has the potential to touch and influence our lives in many ways. This paper simply raises questions over some of predicted timescales; it is not a case of whether digital television will enter our lives but when it will gain widespread penetration.

It would appear though from these data that current timescales are optimistic and that a majority penetration for digital TV may be some way off.

LOOKING AT THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

History shows that new technologies are often quite slow in becoming widespread. The next chart shows how two channel television, the video recorder and colour TV all reached significant penetration levels in their early years. Not surprising – the benefits are obvious.

Penetration levels for the home computer and satellite television have been much slower to build. Multi-channel television has been covered above but the slow speed of the pc could be due to an historical marketing focus behind the technology itself – the bits and the bytes – and not on the benefits offered to the user. A lot of time and effort is made making people computer literate, surely we should be making computers people literate.

But whether current developments are rapid or move at a slow pace, we can’t ignore them. We all have to plan for change, understand its impact, manage it and benefit from it. And if there are any changes in the way people receive commercial communications, digest them and act upon them, we have to be ready to exploit that as and when it occurs. We have to experiment now to assess what will work best in a changing media landscape.

At the end of the day, most of us in the MRG have a professional interest in the whole area of new technology because we make our livelihood through getting messages to people. Nowadays people are getting and digesting their messages through a wide range of media – including the new.

Looking at the distribution of TVs and computers around the house (following chart) we can see that, already, 17% of computers are located in the living room where there will likely also be a television set. It doesn’t take too big a leap of imagination to envisage some of the time spent watching TV migrating to the computer.

SUMMARY

• It is an understatement to say that times are changing. There’s nothing new in that but now it is faster. Current society trends are creating pressures particularly on time, technology has the opportunity to alleviate pressure, to make life easier and more enjoyable. On the way it could – and probably will – transform both our social and our media behaviour. But we need to take a pragmatic research approach to anticipating developments – simply going out into the streets and asking people to predict their future behaviour can lead to some misleading projections – they just can’t do it.

• There is a need to concentrate on people and how they live their everyday lives – only through this deeper understanding, can we hope to make sense out of their consumption and behaviour. Successful innovators in this brave new world must understand social and historical context in order to succeed. Ignoring consumer needs and behaviour could be very costly – both socially and commercially.

• Change is of interest to us all as citizens and consumers, understanding its impact is essential in the world of commercial communications. This paper has only been able to skim the surface of the futura.com study and the answers it holds but hopefully its value has been demonstrated in the management of consumer communications in tomorrow’s world.