As speculation over the Observer’s future intensifies, the possibility of further change in the national quality Sunday newspaper market increases.
Within the past 5 years there have been 2 new entrants into the Sunday quality market. The ill-fated Sunday Correspondent launched in September’89; a year later as part of a radical attempt to save the newspaper it was relaunched as a tabloid but this lasted less than 2 months and it was closed in November ’90. The Independent on Sunday, which launched in January ’90, was more successful.
However, despite the addition of the Independent on Sunday the total circulation of the market has decreased by around 130,000. Of the 3 established titles the Observer has suffered most with its circulation declining from 750,000 5 years ago to around 530,000.
Despite losing around 150,000 over the same period the Sunday Telegraph’s circulation of 575,000 is now above that of the Observer. The Sunday Times, while remaining the dominant title in terms of circulation, has lost around 180,000 over the last 5 years.
| AVERAGE 6-MONTHLY ABCs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
STms ‘000 |
STel ‘000 |
Obsv ‘000 |
IoS ‘000 |
Corr ‘000 |
| J-J’88 |
1363 |
716 |
750 |
|
|
| J-D’88 |
1315 |
693 |
722 |
|
|
| J-J’89 |
1318 |
656 |
694 |
|
|
| J-D’89 |
1248 |
633 |
639 |
|
310@ |
| J-J’90 |
1187 |
587 |
567 |
363* |
206 |
| J-D’90 |
1165 |
594 |
551 |
352 |
154+ |
| J-J’91 |
1177 |
576 |
579 |
385 |
|
| J-D’91 |
1148 |
567 |
548 |
374 |
|
| J-J’92 |
1203 |
562 |
541 |
385 |
|
| J-D’92 |
1176 |
575 |
536 |
407 |
|
@ Based on Oct-Dec, + Based on Jul-Aug, * Based on Feb-Jun
SUNDAY QUALITY TOTAL MARKET SIZE
| Total Circ |
|
|
|
‘000 |
Index |
| J-J’88 |
2828 |
100 |
| J-D’88 |
2730 |
97 |
| J-J’89 |
2668 |
94 |
| J-D’89 |
2830 |
100 |
| J-J’90 |
2910 |
103 |
| J-D’90 |
2816 |
100 |
| J-J’91 |
2717 |
96 |
| J-D’91 |
2638 |
93 |
| J-J’92 |
2690 |
95 |
| J-D’92 |
2694 |
95 |
Figs based on 6-monthly ABCs
The Observer has been struggling unsuccessfully to halt its falling circulation for some time. Last October’s revamp of the colour magazine, which was accompanied by much publicity over the inclusion of photographs of Madonna, failed to make any lasting impact. Speculation as to the fate of the Lonrho title has centred around 2 possibilities; a buyout by the Guardian and a buyout by Newspaper Publishing. The latter is seen as the most probable and this would almost certainly result in the newspaper’s closure. A bid for the Observer by Newspaper Publishing may be referred to the Monopolies and Mergers Commission although it is considered unlikely that it will be opposed. Any bid accepted by Lonrho is likely to entail them taking a shareholding in Newspaper Publishing. If such a bid goes ahead and the newspaper is either merged with the Independent on Sunday or closed then the 3 remaining quality Sundays will be looking to catch the displaced readers.
