The AV paradox: seismic shifts needed in how we plan TV
Strategy Leaders
TV has never been as effective, but is under threat. How should advertisers navigate this ‘AV paradox’?
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”
― F. Scott Fitzgerald
Paradoxes make our heads hurt (well, mine at least) and, despite the wise words from the author of The Great Gatsby, one paradox is challenging our industry’s ability to function currently:
TV has never been as effective, but is under threat
On one hand, the most important channel to help stimulate both short-term sales and long-term growth, TV, has never been as effective. Econometric study after econometric study has validated the power of the 40-inch flat screen (the average size according to Statista) as the foundation of successful media plans.
Indeed, the faith in the medium explains why there were over 1,200 new TV advertisers last year and why the fastest-growing category to TV has been the online-born businesses that have accelerated over the pandemic.
On the other hand, TV viewing is being firmly challenged. The decline in younger viewers is not new news, but every demographic is in long-term decline with adults (-4%), ABC1s (-8%) and parents (-12%) all forecast to watch less TV in 2022.
Now, it is absolutely true that TV’s loss is AV’s gain and much of this decline in linear viewing is being displaced into other platforms, such as broadcaster VOD, subscription VOD, advertising VOD, online video, and social video. In fact, we are actually watching more video than ever before – up over half an hour a day since the pandemic.
And yet this video displacement throws up a number of challenges for media agencies and their advertisers to wrestle with:
- Time spent doesn’t equate to effectiveness
- Less TV means fewer commercial hours of video
- Smaller screens can struggle to deliver the same attention as bigger screens
- Increased costs of equivalent completed views
- Limited cross-channel measurement
How do we navigate this AV paradox?
The simple answer is that now, more than ever, we need to plan AV as one. The harder answer is that will require some seismic shifts, and here are a few of them:
AVRs, not TVRs
Planning as one requires creating a universal AV currency to level the playing field and allow all video to be planned and costed fairly side by side. This is especially important considering that Project Origin is some way off from being launched.
AI allocation
Maximizing reach remains the media goal, but to do this at scale across multiple AV platforms requires advanced processing power. This makes AI essential so that thousands of reach curves, across multiple audiences and combinations of plans can be effectively analysed and efficiently allocated.
‘Bigger picture’ AV teams
With so many AV channels required on a single plan, there is now a great opportunity to foster even greater collaboration between agency, client and creative agency partners.
This is because we need full alignment across brand video plans – from TV to Tik Tok – and there is no time for the arbitrary ‘traditional vs. digital’ distinction.
As Mark Ritson writes, we are now in the age of ‘bothism’, and this is especially true of AV.
End-to-end effectiveness
While the AV world continues to fragment further, we cannot lose sight of our core role, that of effectiveness. Understanding the impact of AV on our plans will require new ways of measuring the whole and sum of the parts of the video plan.
Thankfully, there are a number of great tools, from the established, such as Media Mix Modelling available to us all through the Media Mix Navigator, to the emerging, such as creative analytics, which helps establish benchmarks for video assets to reduce media wastage and inform future creative development.
Media and message
This new approach does not mean the death of the 30-second spot (far from it) and placing your longer, sound on AV assets will remain job number one. However, different AV screens, contexts and experiences require the creative execution to not only be platform ready, but crucially agnostic to benefit and travel further.
Here at MediaCom we operate a ‘One AV’ philosophy, process and system that helps our clients tackle the AV paradox to deliver the most effective and cost-efficient brand-building plans.
As the digital age marches on, accelerates and reinvents our industry this won’t be the last set of opposing ideas, first rate intelligence or head hurting we will need to retain our ability to function.
James Parnum is head of planning at MediaCom UK
Strategy Leaders: Mediatel News’ weekly bulletin with thought leadership, news and analysis dedicated to new ideas, challenges, and excellence in commercial media strategy.
Sign up for free to ensure you stay up to date every Tuesday.