Zenith Report Highlights Demise Of Newspapers

The demand for newspapers in the five largest economies (the USA, Japan, Germany, France and the UK) is falling, according to Zenith’s World Press Trends 1997 report in collaboration with the World Association of Newspapers.

The report goes on to say that newspapers are losing their share of advertising markets, principally to television, while circulations are falling as consumers find alternative ways of filling their time. The demand for newsprint is forecast to rise in 1997, and with it the price of newsprint. Zenith points out however that buoyant advertising revenues will make the higher cost easier to bear but the situation remains fragile. Copy sales are generally static, with a particular shortage of younger readers, though it is expected that ad revenues will only remain buoyant until the next recession.

Zenith highlight the “certain inalienable advantages” the medium has as an advertising vehicle, pointing out that press ads cheaper to make than TV and most other media, audience research is “generally good” and the editorial environment, often a “crucial part of advertising planning”, is versatile.

Overall it is expected that the loss of advertising share to television will decelerate. Electronic media, according to the report, have shown few signs of attracting a significant share of marketing spend while interactive media are unlikely to replace newspapers as long as the latter “maintain their editorial identities and integrity.”

Other points were:

• By share of advertising expenditure the heaviest users of newspapers advertising in 1996 were Denmark (70%), Norway (61%), closely followed by Switzerland and Finland (both with 57%).
• Newspapers’ share of ad expenditure in the top five economies has fallen from 38.6% in 1989 to 35.2% in 1996. It is forecast that in 1999 this loss of share would have decelerated to stand at 34.2%.
• Free newspapers weathered the top of the recent newsprint cost price cycle in 1994/5 and are “likely to exhibit vitality until the end of the current economic cycle.”

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