Zenith UK TV Forecasts To 2003 Updates

Zenith have launched a March 95 update to their ongoing TV forecasts, including forecasts for Channel 5. The key points are as follows:

• UK economy (GDP) is expected to grow in real terms by 4.2% in 1995; total advertising expenditure by 4.3%, and TV advertising spend by 4.4% (August 1994 forecasts were 3.4%, 2.3% and 2.4% respectively.)
• Channel 5, expected to begin transmission in 1997, is being forecast to attract 5% to total TV viewing and £113m of ad revenue in that year.
• Whilst the forecast for total satellite penetration remains unchanged, there is now expected to be more cable than dish homes in the UK by 1999. 1995 net growth in satellite homes is estimated to be 600,000 – shared equally between dishes and cable, giving a 20.3% penetration of UK homes by the end of 1995. By 2003 23% of homes are expected to be connected via cable and 17% by dish.
• In 1995 satellite TV’s share of revenue is expected to be worth £130m. By 2003 this is expected to rise to £752m, attracting 15% of all TV viewing.
• Channel 4 revenue is expected to rise by 11% in 1995(£435m), accounting for 20% of total terrestrial advertising revenue.
• ITV revenue is expected to rise by 8.2% to £1,624m. ITV revenue by 2003 is expected to amount to £1.4bn (constant 1994 prices).
• GMTV is expected to achieve revenue of £81m in 1995, up 9.2% on 1994.
• The BBC’s share of viewing is expected to fall to around 37% by 2003,from 43% in 1994. By 1996 BBC revenue from the licence fee is estimated to be worth £1.8bn, whilst ITV will attract net revenue of £1.7bn, and total satellite revenue, including subscription, will amount to £0.9bn.