Forecasters at ZenithOptimedia have downgraded their European advertising predictions, with hopes that real growth would emerge this year now all but gone.
ZenithOptimedia had previously forecast that the top-five European advertising nations would see a 1.8% rise in revenues in 2003; it is now anticipating growth of just 0.4%. Forecasts for 2004 have been downgraded from 4.2% to 3.2%.
In the UK, growth is expected to be 1.1% in current prices this year, rising to 2.9% in 2004. In constant prices, this translates to -1.4% and 0.4% respectively.
The US figures, on the other hand, have been increased slightly in the latest quarterly release from ZenithOptimedia. The forecasts for 2003 US growth now stand at 2.2%, up from 1.9%.
No war effect (yet)
The group says that war has not yet damaged hopes of a recovery, although a prolonged war could have an adverse effect on advertisers’ confidence. Rather, the downgrades in Europe are the result of weaker than expected economic recovery in the region. Advertising recovery is currently lagging behind even this poor economic growth.
The forecasts cover the seven largest ad markets, which together account for 73% of global adspend. A full break-down of the figures will be available on MediaTelINSIGHT shortly.
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