US advertising will grow by 1.6% in 2002, leading the global ad industry out of two years of decline, according to a consensus of recent advertising forecasts. Growth is then expected to rise to around 3.6% in 2003, hit 4.2% in 2004 and fall back to 3.7% in 2005.
A similar average, but generated using forecasts only from those groups which publish global and regional figures as well as US data, yields a slightly lower growth rate of 1.3% in 2002 and 3.5% in 2003 (see Insight Analysis: Global And Regional Advertising Forecast Comparisons).
Included in the figures below are the US-only forecasters, Jack Myers Report and Jupiter Research, which overall contribute to a slightly more optimistic picture for the US market.
US Advertising Growth Forecast Comparisons | ||||
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ÂÂ | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
Lehman Brothers | 1.4 | 3.7 | – | – |
Merrill Lynch | 0.7 | 4.0 | – | – |
Universal McCann | 2.7 | 5.3 | – | – |
WARC | 1.4 | 4.0 | – | – |
Jack Myers Report | 2.5 | 2.8 | – | – |
ABN AMRO | 0.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | – |
Zenith Optimedia | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
Jupiter Research | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.0 |
Average | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
Source: As above, compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT, December 2002 |