There will be more than 40 million high-speed, broadband internet homes in western Europe by 2005, according to the latest forecasts from eMarketer. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52.8% on 2002.
Asia Pacific, the most-connected world region, will hit 67.4 million households by 2005, up from 24.2 million in 2002. Worldwide, the number of homes is expected to rise from 57.2 million in 2002 to 154.3 million in 2005 – a CAGR of 39.2%.
Global Broadband Household Forecasts | |||||||
Number Of Households (000s) | |||||||
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | CAGR 2002-2005 (%) | |
Asia-Pacific | 5,822 | 12,469 | 24,226 | 36,691 | 50,488 | 67,355 | 40.6 |
Latin America | 119 | 492 | 881 | 1,467 | 2,321 | 3,255 | 54.6 |
North America | 5,493 | 13,930 | 20,619 | 28,493 | 35,591 | 42,590 | 27.4 |
Western Europe | 1,633 | 6,218 | 11,520 | 19,536 | 29,289 | 41,121 | 52.8 |
TOTAL | 13,067 | 33,109 | 57,246 | 86,187 | 117,689 | 154,321 | 39.2 |
Source: eMarketer, March 2003 |
North America Broadband is forecast to be in 22.0% of US homes this year, rising to 32.2% by 2005, according to the Broadband Worldwide report. In Canada, meanwhile, more than half of all households are expected to receive broadband services by 2005.
North American Broadband Penetration (%) Forecasts | ||||||
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | |
Canada | 12.0 | 23.3 | 28.5 | 35.9 | 43.9 | 50.7 |
US | 3.9 | 10.5 | 15.9 | 22.0 | 27.2 | 32.2 |
Source: eMarketer, March 2003 |
“Still gun-shy from the dot-com crash and continuing economic uncertainty, telecom, media and marketing companies are understandably hesitant to fully embrace the broadband concept,” says senior analyst Ben Macklin. “The countries and companies that realise the full potential of widespread broadband will surge ahead in the next decade,” he predicts.
Macklin reckons that users will now begin to take advantage of applications that go beyond the PC and web browsers, citing Microsoft’s Xbox game system as a good example of this. “It uses a high-speed connection to combine entertainment with communication among its users. Meanwhile, AOL has committed $35 million to a branding campaign for broadband and it is finally focusing on delivering the content that can drive broadband subscriptions.”
Separate figures from the Leichtman Research Group show that US broadband uptake saw record growth in 2002, reaching 17.4 million users (see US Broadband Sees Record Growth In 2002). Forecasts from the Yankee Group predict that Western European broadband revenues will be worth $15.8 billion by 2005 (see European Broadband Revenues On The Rise).