Total television viewing among 16-34s is set to rise from 2010 onwards following an initial period of decline, according to a new report from Attentional.
This is in spite of the fact that average daily television viewing among this group is set to drop from around three hours a day in 2006, to 2.86 in 2012, due to competition from new media.
However, Attentional says that high levels of immigration mean that the number of 16-34s is set to grow in the next six years, with a significant minority of young people (just under 20% in 2006) yet to go digital, and some “resistors” not set to convert until at or near analogue switch-off.
Therefore Attentional predicts that the total amount of television watched by this group will begin to rise in 2010, bringing it back to just under the 2006 level by 2012.
Applying this model, Viacom, which owns the MTV, VH1, Nickelodeon and Paramount brands, gains more audience share among the key 16-34 demographic than any other broadcaster, as the UK approaches digital switchover in 2012. The new demographic-level forecast shows Viacom’s viewing share among 16-34s rising from 4.06% across all UK television households in 2006, to 4.68% in 2012 (when the last of the UK’s analogue terrestrial transmitters is switched off).
The Attentional forecasts show viewing becoming ever more fragmented across a wider range of channels, with Viacom picking up more share among 16-34s than its rivals. Four broadcasters are predicted to lose share among this age group: BBC, Channel 4, ITV and BSkyB.
All Viacom channels look set to gain some viewing share, but the free-to-air music channel TMF (one of only two music channels available on the Freeview digital terrestrial platform) leads the way, with a forecast gain of 0.14 share points.
Meanwhile, the UKTV channels are well placed to capitalise on the ‘grey boom’ that will see many older viewers rapidly converting to digital reception as switchover looms ever nearer.
Attentional forecasts a combined all-homes share among Adults 55+ of 3.62% for the UKTV channels in 2012, up 0.92 share points from 2.7% in 2006. This is largely due to the expected performance of UKTV in Freeview homes.
The channel share and audience forecasts from Attentional cover 18 demographic groups, and use advanced statistical techniques to predict the future performance of all channels currently measured by the BARB audience panel. The model takes into account factors such as multichannel conversion by platform and demographic group, trends in viewing time by demographic group, and shifts in the demographic make-up of the UK population.
The recent IPA Trends In Television report for Q1 2007 revealed that people are spending an average of 3.85 hours each day watching television, less than they have for almost a decade (see Viewing Levels Lowest For Almost A Decade).
Meanwhile, Strategy Analytics forecast that 90% of UK homes will be watching High Definition TV by 2020, as long as Ofcom allocates spectrum on the digital terrestrial television (DTT) platform for HDTV (see 90% Of UK Homes Could Be Watching HDTV By 2020).
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